By Iconoclast
Though there may be starry-eyed AAP supporters hoping for a Delhi-like miracle in the Lok Sabha elections as well, that is not likely to happen any time soon.
The best case scenario in the Lok Sabha election for AAP would be to persuade people who do not see merit in any of the parties or candidates to vote for them instead of pressing the NOTA (None Of The Above) button. Since the average NOTA figure in the recent Assembly elections was around 1% of the vote, this is what AAP may end up with in the constituencies it chooses to contest. Unlike the Delhi elections, options for the LS elections are aplenty, and different options in different regions are available, what with the regional parties holding sway in large swathes of the political farmland. To fancy that this upstart would upstage Congress, let alone BJP, is a flight of fancy.
AAP is not likely to hit the double figures nationally. Here are the reasons:
AAP as a national option is largely a consequence of media overdrive. Electronic media in particular has suddenly discovered a panacea to all the ills that afflict India. It is, hold your breath, a political party; and one which was born just over a year back. It has the novelty value the viewers of electronic media so crave. It has also the iconoclastic in-your-face kind of impudence which the youth loves. So the electronic media now thinks that the political system is passé and the new kid on the block can do no wrong. Rather, it is the only one that can do everything right even if it has no thought on most of the key issues facing India. It is virtually a single issue party – corruption and privileges of the politico-bureaucratic class.
There is no gainsaying the fact that the feat of Aam Aadmi Party in notching up 30% of Delhi vote, and 28 out of 70 seats in a very short period of its existence was phenomenal. Delhi is the most dis-empowered among all States and UTs. Its Assembly is veritably a glorified Municipal body.
MCD and BMC have more power to do good than the Government of NCT of Delhi, which has to operate under the long shadow of the Union government. There were good reasons for its stellar performance in the Delhi environment, which may not necessarily exist in the nation-wide scenario, which is why I consider it necessary to disabuse readers of any miracles happening for AAP in the parliamentary elections.
AAP performance in Delhi is both a product of a first mover advantage that AAP got with an early decision to contest the Assembly elections and an egregious decision by the BJP not to project a presumptive CM. An impression was created that Vijay Goel was going to be BJP's face for CM. There was a massive anti-Congress sentiment. For want of a viable alternative in BJP, this started crystallising towards Kejriwal, who carried a persona of an anti-corruption crusader, his populist stance of freebies on power and water notwithstanding. Nitin Gadkari's curious stand on a collective leadership inflicted enormous collateral damage on BJP, and it was only on the goading of Narendra Modi that BJP announced Harsh Vardhan as its CM face. BJP was trailing heavily at that point, and I would give much credence to the internal assessment of a comfortable majority by AAP. The momentum started shifting towards BJP only after Harsh Vardhan was projected as the CM candidate by BJP. He had precious little time to reverse the tide unleashed by AAP and its novelty. It was, therefore, a remarkable feat by the BJP to emerge as the single largest party in spite of joining the battle so late.
Arvind Kejriwal's success may be difficult to replicate. AFP.
Contrast this with the BJP's national strategy. They are the first one to have moved in for the kill. They made Narendra Modi their Prime Ministerial candidate well before the Assembly elections and reaped a whirlwind. AAP is such a late starter on the national stage that as a regional party, they have only just about started making members across the country. They have no idea of the national issues that they are going to project. The anti-corruption plank is something atop which the BJP has been safely ensconced for many months. Modi is almost a cult figure against corruption.
Additionally, he has a well proven track record on development. His views on national issues, external and internal security, national economy, job creation and a host of other issues are well known. He has a huge groundswell of support among those who favour a nationalist agenda over blind appeasement policies of UPA.
AAP is a single issue party so far, harping only on their commitment against corruption. Their attempts to articulate national issues have come a cropper. Repeated foot in the mouth statements by people including Prashant Bhushan (Referendum in Kashmir), Yogendra Yadav (reservations) , Rakhi Birla (I was attacked), and Somnath Bharti (I will hold a meeting of the judges) have caused considerable consternation among the urban middle class and youth. This 65% segment is deeply nationalistic, anti-caste, and idealistic. AAP's bumbling forays into administration of Delhi and casual and flippant statements by its senior leaders have taken a lot of the sheen away from the initial euphoria that its government formation (not victory, as BJP was the largest party in Delhi) generated.
Added to the confused responses to the national issues, and a complete lack of infrastructure nationally, is the issue of regional parties who are looking at this neophyte with a lot of amusement. AAP has not contended with the factum of dedicated votes, and have not contended with the fact that people would be extremely loath to give a fractured verdict in the face of a viable alternative in Modi. AAP will, therefore, be a NOTA choice for those who cannot make up their minds. So the fond hope of the AAP party that it will make a difference in Parliamentary elections is just that – a fond hope.
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