For a party that seemed to be finally getting its act together after 10 years, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is almost where it was in 2004 - angry, surly and unnecessarily touchy on issues. After 2004's unexpected defeat, the party lived in denial for nine years till Narendra Modi came along. Instead of building the national party and drumming up popular support, its leaders turned bitter and obstructionist in parliament. The party lacked a coherent policy at the national level, even though it always had strength at the state level.
Now, blindsided by the sudden rise of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the party is thrashing about in fury. It is in danger of losing the plot as it is beginning to feel that it may be cheated out of a sure win in the general elections - and may have to settle for a sub-180 seat strength in the next Lok Sabha. A sub-180 seat count makes it tougher for Modi to make it to PM.
BJP leaders at a meet. AFP.
The BJP is right to worry about the AAP, but it should be spending more time monitoring the national mood rather than worrying about what AAP is doing or saying. If AAP is rising and attracting new recruits, it is because the citizen is making new demands on political parties - and rejuvenation calls for addressing these issues. It is a simple truth in the corporate world that if your customers are changing, you have to change too. The rules are no different for political parties. They too need reinvention. Rahul Gandhi has realized it, though he is the wrong man for the job. Modi may be the right man for BJP, but one wonders if the party is willing to change as fast.
A Times of India poll today shows an overwhelming swing in the urban metropolitan mood towards AAP, with 44 percent saying they will back AAP in the Lok Sabha polls and 27 percent saying they would if the candidate is right. If the survey is anywhere representative of reality (unlikely, since the issues are still not framed for the Lok Sabha polls), AAP could end up anywhere near 20-40 seats. We don't know yet if the rural mood is also partially shifting now that AAP is rapidly establishing its urban viability, but that is another story.
The BJP's response to AAP's unexpected surge has ranged from denial to aggressive counter-attacks - as in the case of Prashant Bhushan's remarks on Kashmir. It may be unfair to link Wednesday's attack by a Hindu organisation on AAP's Ghaziabad office with the BJP, but public perceptions will still see the two as linked - something Prashant Bhushan has already alleged. The BJP will be blamed no matter what. The only plausible stand for the BJP to take in such a situation is to appear calm and unpanicked – something its spokespersons are not displaying right now.
The BJP needs to realise that Kashmir won't be the core issue in the next elections, and if it responds to every such provocation by outliers like Prashant Bhushan, it is in danger of making AAP a martyr. After that AAP will be setting the national agenda - if it hasn't done so already.
If the BJP wants to mould the agenda to its advantage, it has to respond to the electorate, not AAP. AAP is a product of the developing national mood, not its solution. It does not have a well-thought-out political or economic strategy as yet, but as it starts on a clean state, it will always be given the benefit of the doubt for this lack. Its strength is its start-up speed and ability to respond to flashmob democratic needs - something the bigger parties are unable to do.
The question is: what is the new national mood? And what has changed in the last two months where the AAP wave has been gathering speed, while the Modi bandwagon has hit a speedbreaker?
My answer is this: the earlier mood, which was merely one of anger with the Congress party's misgovernance, was about anti-incumbency and change. The AAP near-victory in Delhi has established its viability. The mood has now altered significantly. It is not just a throw-the-b******s-out anger, but includes new, growing strands of hope. The public expectations have shifted from mere change to change with hope.
AAP fits this bill naturally, given its spectacular debut in Delhi and the fresh faces it brings in. It is seen to be bringing in not just change but new hope too. It is not tarnished by association with old-style politics.
The BJP also shares part of the change agenda, but there is a gap in filling the hope agenda. If it wants to halt the AAP surge, it has to drive a new agenda of change right now to tell the people what it will bring. Without a positive agenda of new ideas, big ideas, it will be seen as merely a shade better than the Congress.
To revive its fortunes between now and April, the BJP has to take risks with a new agenda that will capture popular imagination. And yes, it has to abandon its sulks and anger over the sudden rise of AAP and the media's honeymoon with the new kid on the block. Attacking the media for its current obsession with AAP is pointless, for the media also comes from the same population that sees hope in AAP. But as always, this honeymoon will not last indefinitely with the media.
In a flashmob democracy where media, including social media, can amplify the public mood rather quickly, new parties and waves may be created rather quickly. Yogendra Yadav told The Indian Express the other day that if he had another year to prepare for the Lok Sabha polls, he would have been happier. He said: "…If I had my way with the Election Commission, I would ask them to postpone the 2014 polls by a year!"
He is likely to be wrong. It is in AAP's interest to grow like wildfire when the urban public is in love with it and does not know what it stands for. A year later, the warts will be visible on Arvind Kejriwal's face and the Sheila Dikshit fiasco will be forgotten. Also, the AAP will find it difficult to reconcile the interests of right and left that are currently driving it.
Corporate honchos like Hero Motocorp CEO Pawan Munjal, ex-Infosys CFO V Balakrishnan and ex-banker Meera Sanyal will not find it easy to live in the same tent as a socialist Prashant Bhushan, who wants to rope in CPM veteran VS Achuthanandan and anti-nuclear activists into AAP. These contradictions will all hang out a year later, which is why an early election helps AAP.
For the BJP, it is clear what it must do: monitor what the voter really wants, offer a clear governance and economic agenda of hope, and do this quickly - as in yesterday. It has to offer an alternative to AAP and the regional parties who are not its partners, not Congress.
The Congress agenda is clear; enable AAP to roll back the Modi wave and keep the BJP seats at 170 or below, stymie Modi's hopes, prop up a third front for two years and then offer itself as an alternative to AAP confusion. If AAP heads, or is part of a multi-party coalition comprising Left and regional parties, it will end up discrediting itself faster on the anti-corruption plank since all third front parties are no less corrupt than the Congress.
The BJP actually has more options before it than seems possible. First, if we accept the reality that the regional parties are as wary of AAP as BJP, they will have to choose what they think is the lesser evil. Some could choose the BJP, for it is hardly likely that AAP can partner the DMK or AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, or a Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh, or the NCP-Congress in Maharashtra, or the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh without denting its own credentials. One should not be too surprised if a 180-plus BJP finds at least outside support from at least some of the regional parties.
However, whatever the poll outcome, one thing is clear: the BJP, like any other major party, has to focus on building it economic ideology and grassroots strengths. It is more than likely that the party is stronger than it seems in the south and east, and weaker than it seems in the north and the west. Both call for organizational growth. If it does not come to power in 2014, this is what the party must focus on after 2014 – and not fritter away the opposition space like Messrs LK Advani, Nitin Gadkari, Sushma Swaraj, Rajnath Singh and Arun Jaitley did after 2004.
Ultimately, the AAP and BJP will be enemies – and this is what the BJP has to prepare for politically. It has to provide the centre-left ballast against AAP/Congress centre-left leanings.
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