The dynamics of coalition politics in the country is set for a change. The agent of this change is going to be the Aam Aadmi Party, that Black Swan in Indian politics. The outlier has shaken up the political establishment already, its impact would magnify once the party becomes a full-fledged player in national politics. The party may contest the Lok Sabha polls in 20 states or in about 300 seats across the country. It may not be a runaway success by way of winning seats—AAP sources expect a modest haul of 30-40—but it promises to alter the rather set template of coalition calculations and the mix-and-match process.
How? Let's begin with the big parties, the Congress and the BJP, which anchor the UPA and the NDA respectively. The Congress, after concluding that coalitions were a temporary phenomenon and vehemently dismissing the idea of sharing power with other parties at its Panchmarhi conclave in 1998, did a U-turn on its position rather quickly. The shift helped the party return to political reckoning in 2004. It went on to form the government as the head of the UPA. After the UPA won a second time in 2009, the Congress was convinced that it had broken the coalition code and the principal rival, the BJP, had little chance of beating it.
AAP volunteers. AFP
The party was certain that it has managed to create a political eco-system which would make it difficult for the BJP to find allies to form a government. Even if its own tally dipped significantly, the eco-system would ensure that the Congress would never be too away from power. It did not matter if it did not a have strong leadership or credibility to rule. That's the reason the party had been so dismissive of Narendra Modi or the issue of corruption or the protest on the streets. Nothing mattered so long as the arithmetic worked fine. It was conviction that bordered on over-confidence.
The 'Congress system'—that is how BJP president Rajnath Singh would put it—placed the BJP in a position of disadvantage. With hardly any presence in the South and the East and votes in electorally crucial Uttar Pradesh and Bihar potentially divided among four strong claimants, the party could expect around 180 seats if it performed to the best of its ability. Finding allies to secure at least 92 more seats to form the government was a near impossible task. But in a way, that was also an advantage. The party knew its enemy and its own shortcomings, and understood how to go about it. It unleashed Modi to capitalize on the prevailing mood of discontent in the country and win over the middle class, the youth and the micro constituencies.
It was an experiment that appeared fool-proof. Modi has managed to create a small wave in favour of the BJP. However, just as he appeared set to deliver the impossible for the party—about 200 seats and allies—comes the AAP. The latter threatens to take away a major chunk of the youth-middle class votes cultivated assiduously by the BJP's prime ministerial candidate – if Delhi results were not proof enough, the huge interest in the membership drive of the party across the stats should suffice. If the AAP manages to run a successful campaign before the elections, it might end up pulling down the seat tally of the later. A loss of 20 seats may make a huge difference to the prospects of the BJP.
The Congress, of course, is the bigger loser. There is a strong chance of its support base gravitating to the AAP in many states. The new outfit is similar to it ideological agenda and it offers fresh leadership. Once the AAP gets a toe hold in the states where Congress has good presence but is virtually defunct as a political unit, its recovery would be impossible. No matter what Rahul Gandhi does to re-energise the party, a lost vote base is never easy to recover. If AAP manages to bring the Congress tally down to the sub-80s region or worse, it would effectively destroy the latter's coalition game plan. Its position as the anchor of the UPA coalition would be no more tenable.
With big parties far away from the majority mark, it becomes an open game. Many parties, particularly the Left ones and others with no special liking for the Congress and the BJP might veer towards pushing the AAP to the leadership role. Admitted, it's a long shot, but in a situation where everything is in a flux no possibility can be ruled out. Even if we leave out this possibility, there can be no denying that with 20 seats—let's keep the seats on the lower side—the AAP would still be one of the bigger parties in Parliament and will be in a position to influence many decisions.
In short, the AAP might change the nature of coalition equations in the country. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
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