While political parties in other big states are still unclear of their alliances for the Lok Sabha elections, Tamil Nadu looks like an exception: So early in the day, at least the two big rivals are clear about the company they want to keep.
The AIADMK had announced several months ago that they would go it alone, which in real terms means some space for the Left and the minorities, while the DMK said it didn't want its UPA-partner Congress anywhere near them.
In other words, both the Dravidian parities have asked their national counterparts aiming for power in Delhi to stay away. That both had been alternating with the Congress and the BJP doesn't matter. For the moment, both are a liability.
However, the DMK's story is only half complete.
Jayalalithaa's AIADMK appears stronger right now. AFP.
It certainly doesn't want the Congress, but wants the DMDK, the party founded and run by actor "Captain" Vijayakanth. It has propositioned to Vijayakanth quite publicly more than once, but Vijayakanth is yet to take the bait. Instinctively, he wouldn't, because he doesn't like the DMK - at least that's what he had told the people in the last Assembly elections.
Vijayakanth hasn't yet said that he would tie up with the DMK; instead, on Sunday he said that the BJP was also a choice. The DMK is patiently waiting to hear from him because they know that he has nowhere to go. Allying with a party (BJP) with less than three per cent voteshare will be pure harakiri for him.
So the principal fight will be between the AIADMK-CPM-CPI (plus the Manithaneya Makkal Katchi, the Muslim party that won two Assembly seats in 2011 in alliance with the AIADMK) and the DMK-DMDK (plus the VCK, the Dalit party).
On paper - going by average voteshare - the AIADMK front looks stronger. It has an average voteshare percentage (based on the last four general elections - 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha, and 2006 and 2011 assembly elections) of 30 plus compared to DMK's 24 plus. During the last ten years, the AIADMK always scored higher than the DMK, except in 2009.
That gives the AIADMK the headstart. However, what also matter are the alliance partners and how much they contribute. The DMK won the 2006 Assembly elections and got more seats than the AIADMK in the Lok Sabha in 2009 because of its alliance with the Congress, which has an average voteshare exceeding 10 per cent. Therefore, to be contest-worthy, the DMK needs an equally healthy replacement for the Congress and that is why it's swallowing its pride and wooing the DMDK.
The DMDK's average voteshare of nearly 9 per cent and support from parties such as VCK can take the DMK neck-to-neck with the AIADMK. If the Vanniyar dominated PMK, which has been posturing equidistance from both the Dravidian parties also end up in the DMK front, it will be significantly stronger on paper although poll arithmetic is not simple addition of voteshares.
The alliance arithmetic makes it very clear that the AIDMK will not go it alone as was originally announced. Going by the 2011 elections, the party is far stronger than the DMK on its own. However, the allies of the DMK will make up for the shortfall. Therefore, Jayalalithaa will certainly need at least the Left with her - the CPM and CPM together have about five per cent voteshare.
Unfortunately, the biggest loser in the alliance -- by omission -- is the Congress. Without a partner and no chance to win, the party will not only see its resources wasted, but might also see an erosion of its voteshare because traditionally the state's electorate backs hands down the front with a potential to win.
What will be interesting, in this context, are the possible multi-cornered fights. Besides the AIADMK and DMK fronts, if the Congress (mostly alone) and BJP (mostly with Vaiko's MDMK) and the PMK (if it doesn't ally with the DMK) are also in the fray, the contests can be too close to call in many pockets.
Where does this crowded scenario place the Delhi-hero AAP?
Nowhere for the time being, because there's hardly any space. The polity of the state is do deeply polarised between the two Dravidian parties that all the other parties have an electoral life only if they are in alliance with the former. Some earnestly believed that there was space for a third player, which the Congress, the DMDK and the PMK have been vying for. However, none of them could cross the 10 per cent park and the most successful of the three was the DMDK.
If the AAP wants to make some inroads, even if targets only the cities, it has to come up with something truly dramatic and imaginative. It will also require leaders who can match the following and charisma of Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi. Fortunately or unfortunately, most of the state's politically thinking have already signed up to the Dravidian ideology and identity and the rest of the space, although not too significant, is overcrowded.
From whatever little AAP has done so far in the state has been far from impressive or smart. Inviting the leaders of the Kudnagulam anti-nuclear agitation, for example, into its fold is a strategic blunder because outside their constituency, they are mostly unpopular.
In the end, Tamil Nadu is a brilliant example of the domination of regional parties even for national elections. Isn't it ironical that two principal national parties vying for the crown in Delhi have been asked to stay out?
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