The Aam Admi Party couldn't have chosen a better time to go national. According to a soon-t0-be released book titled Indian Youth and Electoral Politics: An Emerging Engagement edited by Sanjay Kumar, psephologist and professor at the Centre for Study of Developing Societies, not only are young Indians showing a growing interest in electoral politics but a unexpectedly high percentage among them have aspirations to actively join politics given the opportunity.
Arvind Kejriwal. AP image
Not surprising then that the recently concluded assembly elections saw a significant increase in voter-turnout among the youth in all five states, and not just in Delhi which saw the explosion of AAP on to the political scene. While voter-turnout among the youth in Delhi was not higher than in the other four states, what is significant is that the Arvind Kejriwal-led party bagged 47-48 per cent youth vote in the state. With the emergence of AAP as the new party of choice for the youth, the BJP and Congress have been forced to rethink their strategies for tapping the youth voter.
Firstpost spoke to Kumar about the factors that have led to this 'emerging engagement' of the youth with electoral politics and what it means for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Excerpts from the interview:
What led you to undertake this study?
Soon after the 2009 Lok Sabha elections there was a lot of buzz about the House having many young Parliamentarians. But the number of young MPs was not high compared to that of the previous Parliament. That raised our curiosity. We then realised that many of the young MPs were sons and daughters of senior politicians from various political parties. That prompted us to do a more careful study on whether young candidates attract young voters and whether there is a relationship between young voters and young candidates. We then randomly picked up 20 parliamentary constituencies where young MPs were either elected or were runners-up in the 2009 LS election. We also looked at what young voters are attracted to, whether they vote differently and so on.
Are young voters more likely to vote for younger candidates?
Our study did not indicate that. We expected that if there was a young candidate, young voters would vote for him or her but we didn't find any relationship between two. People want candidate who are honest and can deliver. Being young is not an attraction.
The title of the books speaks of an 'emerging engagement.' What is the nature of this engagement and how did you measure it?
One measure, is their actual involvement in politics - their participation in election rallies, membership in a political party, voting history and so on. The second is their engagement with ideas. Would they support, for example, the right to recall a candidate or the use of NOTA , or support a retirement age for politicians. And we tried to look at what proportion of the youth supported those ideas. So we measured engagement in terms of actual participation and in terms of their support for ideas to do with political reform.
What factors are driving young people engage more with politics?
The youth are interested in politics and their interest in it is rising. But they want to engage in politics of a different kind, not the kind of politics they have been seeing for the last 30 years. They support ideas to clean politics, of having a retirement age, of having a provision to recall representatives if they are not performing. The interest is there. Their only disappointment is with the kind of people who are contesting elections. But they are looking forward to engaging in politics if there is a different kind of politics.
AAP has become a big hit with the young voters. What is AAP doing right?
The youth voted for AAP in Delhi in big numbers. Out of 100 youth voters between the age of 18 and 25, about 47-48 voted for AAP. Overall in Delhi we know their vote-share is about 30 per cent. You can clearly see that vote among young voters for AAP was 17-18 per cent high. This was mainly because AAP provided a platform for the youth to get associated with the party and given serious roles in the party. AAP has a different type of electoral campaign. By using social media they were able to involve a large number of youth. And also the issues they chose- fight against corruption, price rise, these are issues that has attracted the youth.
In the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, are we likely to see the youth turn out in much larger numbers to vote?
Over the last five Lok Sabha elections and the various assembly elections, the youth have voted in lesser numbers compared to other age groups. The difference in voter-turnout was about 4-5 per cent in all the Lok Sabha elections. But the recent round of assembly elections that were held in Delhi, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram, we saw a huge increase in youth voting turnout. But it is still slightly less compared to turnout in voters in other age group of voters. There is a trend of youth voting in more numbers compared to that in the past. And this trend will continue in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections as well. Certainly, there will be an increase in their electoral participation in 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
What is going to be main challenge for political parties to tap the youth?
Giving youth an equal platform to participate in elections will be their biggest challenge. When it comes to campaigning or working for the party, the youth are working hard but when it comes to contesting elections, they realise that they have an unequal chance. Those close to senior leaders end up getting the tickets and the youth are left out. That is a great disappointment for them. Parties need to address that. Providing an equal playing field for all in the party, that is challenge for the political parties.
What about attracting young voters?
I don't think there is need for parties to do anything special about that. The voter turnout among youth is already increased in recent elections. I expect this trend to continue in the Lok Sabha elections. The need is for greater enrolment from the youth. There is a pattern of the youth being under-represented in the electoral rolls because of several reasons. The requirement, therefore, is to get more youth enrolled to vote. I don't think there is any need for extra effort to motivate young people to vote. That will automatically happen. It has already started happening.
Are factors such as technology, social media, new political possibilities enabling young people to engage more now?
The study didn't focus on the technology aspect. We did ask questions about their interest in politics and whether they would like to choose politics as a career. And a large proportion of the youth, about 33-34 per cent, said they would like to choose politics as a career. The desire among the youth to engage in politics is evident from this study. But they are looking forward to a kind of politics where there is an equal chance of contesting elections.
How politically aware are young voters?
We asked them many questions on incidents of national importance that have happened in the last four-five years. The awareness level is very high. But if we look at the awareness of the youth compared to that of other age group voters, it is not different. We would expect the youth to be more educated, more politically aware compared to older voters. But the study does not indicate that. The youth are as politically aware as any other age group.
What are the main concerns for youth voters?
When we did the study, the Anna Hazare movement had not yet started. Since then, I am sure, corruption has become a big issue. At that time it was unemployment, poverty, price rise.
In the past, have there been similar phases where there has been a surge in participation of the youth in the electoral process?
There have been instances in the past when youth have taken an interest in politics. Soon after the Emergency, the 1977 national election was a time when the youth participated in elections in big numbers. The second instance was in the 1989 Lok Sabha elections when VP Singh became a kind youth icon. They came out on the streets and voted for him in big way. Though we don't have any specific data about that, these are the two instances nationally when we have seen youth participation and mobilisation in big numbers.
I would say that every time there was an excess of some kind about which people got fed up and there was an alternate platform provided, the youth came out large numbers and participated.Between 1975-77, it was the excess of the Emergency and the Janata Party led by Jayaprakash Narayan provided the alternative. The election in 1989 was held in the backdrop of the Bofors scandal and V P Singh, having resigned from the Congress, created a political platform.
Now is also a time when the country has witnessed, or at least there have been serious allegations, of corruption scandals. Arvind Kejriwal and initially Anna Hazare led the anti-corruption movement. This is the right time for the youth to participate in the electoral process.
