New Indian Politics: 03/12/14

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

EC refuses to change poll dates, says no ‘luxury’ to do so

Guwahati: The Election Commission on Wednesday rejected request of "some" political parties to change the dates of first two phase of polls in Assam due to festivals, saying it cannot have this "luxury" while conducting such a huge national exercise.

Representational image of the Chief Election Commissioner VS Sampath. PTI

The full Commission, which came to Assam in its first visit to any state after announcing the Lok Sabha poll dates, also directed the police to seize all licenced and illegal arms to have a free and fair elections in the state.

"Some political parties requested us to change the dates of 7 and 12 April for polling in Assam. Unfortunately we cannot agree. We cannot have the luxury while conducting such a national election," Chief Election Commissioner VS Sampath said.

Flanked by the two Election Commissioners HS Brahma and SNA Zaidi, Sampath said the parties are arguing that 7 April is 'Ashokastami', while 12 April is just two days ahead of Bihu festival.

"These two days are not even restricted holidays in Assam. During the poll days, we will have holidays and people will come out to vote," he added.

The Lok Sabha elections for 14 seats in Assam will be held on 7, 12 and 24 April, while counting will take place along with the entire country on 16 May.

Talking about measures that the Commission is taking to have a conducive atmosphere for polling, Sampath said "We have asked the police for deposition of all licenced arms along with seizure of all illegal arms. We don't want the voters to be intimidated in any way."

He further said the Commission has asked the concerned authorities to have vulnerable mapping of areas and then to provide security so that people living in those areas are not threatened and they can come and vote.

PTI

Lessons Kejriwal’s AAP can learn from Karl Marx

The last time when Aam Admi Party showed serious cracks within its ranks and the possibility of an implosion was when it rose to power in Delhi. The party, which otherwise looked like an orderly assortment of people committed to a healthy transformation of Indian democracy, appeared highly vulnerable to a meltdown.

Arvind Kejriwal's resignation from the chief ministership and the AAP's withdrawal from power solved the problem at once. The internal dissension disappeared and AAP's inability to govern became inconsequential. The party was back on the streets - getting more people to join and more people to donate cash.

But come Lok Sabha elections, the internal wrangle in the party rises its head again. This time not in its ranks, but in its top leadership. Shazia Ilmi and Kumar Viswas, two high profile founders of the AAP have openly defied the leadership. Shazia's peeve is about the AAP's desire to field her against Sonia Gandhi in Rai Bareli, which apparently she doesn't want. Instead of talking it out within the party, she has made her displeasure public. In a tweet, she said: "I am not contesting from Rae Bareli. I never agreed to nor do I now... I've been denying this for the last two months."

Arvind Kejriwal. PTI.

In his tweet in Hindi, Kumar Biswas directly expressed his displeasure at the leadership. His expressions were of betrayal by his leadership as well as the new entrants to the party.

Mallika Sarabahi, another high profile entrant to the party, said that she wouldn't contest the elections even before the AAP asked her to. Reportedly, she was miffed by its leaders not inviting her to join Arvind Kejriwal's theatrics in the state. A number of others who joined the party, with an eye on the parliament elections, are likely to show displeasure in the coming days.

As we noted eariler, American sociologists Herbert Blumer, a pioneer in the study of social movements, had identified four stages in the lifecycle of such movements: social ferment, popular excitement, formalisation, and institutionalisation.

We have witnessed the social ferment, popular excitement and the formalisation in the journey of AAP so far. What they are failing is in the institutionalisation. Scholars who worked on Blumer's postulates redefined his classification further. According to them, the four stages of mass movements are these: emergence, coalescence, bureaucratisation, and DECLINE!

The last time when the party appeared to be heading for a decline was when its Delhi leaders such as Kumar Binny and Nina Sharma spoke ill of its leadership and its failure in governance. By wriggling out of Delhi, the AAP redeemed itself. But now, the cracks are visible again and as the party expands, the they will also expand. What's the way out?

One fundamental problem with the AAP is perhaps its lack of a clear ideology. Being an aam aadmi and longing to throw out the corrupt is at best a wish, not an ideology. Almost all of the AAP leadership and ranks speak only this language. Ask them of their ideology, they haven't yet delineated one.

In such a situation, egos, power-struggles and aspiration for office are unavoidable. What Shazia Ilmi, Kumar Viswas and Mallika Sarabhai betray are driven by some of these personal characteristics. AAP's lack of ideology was clearly exposed by veteran CPM leader VS Achuthanandan, when he was invited to the party by Kejriwal. Achuthanandan said that he fights corruption and other ills of society, but he is driven by an ideology.

It's unfortunate that the cracks in the AAP appeared too soon. It should think long term and pull back a little and unite its leaders and ranks based on an ideology. If an aam aadmi revolution is its ideology, let it bet; but spell it out and make the party members embody it. As Karl Marx (not to allude to AAP's ideology in any way) said in his famous 1850 speech to the central committee of the communist league: "While the democratic petty bourgeois want to bring the revolution to an end as quickly as possible, achieving at most the aims already mentioned, it is our interest and our task to make the revolution permanent until all the more or less propertied classes have been driven from their ruling positions, until the proletariat has conquered state power and until the association of the proletarians has progressed sufficiently far."

Replace the proletariat with "aam aadmi" Kejriwal will have his answer.The AAP seems to be in a hurry to scale up so as to bring its aam aadmi revolution to an end without thinking, if in the process, it has lived up to its promises to people and itself, and if it has driven out the corrupt and criminal elements from power.

The people who join the party with an eye on an assembly or parliament seat is part of the problem too. They don't seem to be ready for a long-haul struggle and want the aam aadmi revolution to end soon and be part of the ruling class.

The biggest threat to AAP is becoming a petty bourgeoisie democrat - a threat from within. The party should not end up as, what Marx called its own "grave diggers". The communists have already done it.

Arvind Kejriwal did not pay toll tax, alleges Gujarat government

Ahmedabad: Gujarat Government today accused Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal and other party members of not paying the road toll at three places during his tour of the state to verify development claims of Chief Minister Narendra Modi.

"Kejriwal and other state leaders of AAP have skipped toll tax payment at three place, moving off with his entire cavalcade," Gujarat government spokesperson and Finance Minister Nitin Patel said.

AFP

"He did not pay the toll at Varahi toll booth in Patan district and Surajbari and Samakhiyali in Kutch district," Patel alleged.

"Former Gujarat MLA from BJP, Kanubhai Kalsariya, was also travelling with him. They did not stop their car even when the toll-booth employee asked them to do so," he claimed.

Reacting to the allegation, AAP's state convener Sukhdev Patel said, "They should first check their own history before making such allegations against us. They took Vitthal Radadiya, accused of showing a gun to toll-booth employee for asking the toll tax, in their party," he said.

"They even made his son minister in their cabinet, so they have no face to make such allegations," he said further.

PTI

Deadlock within BJP stalls Modi’s UP run as LS polls get closer

The BJP's confident election campaign, driven largely by Narendra Modi's signature firebrand speeches, has hit an unexpected wall. The party has been unable to find their Prime Ministerial candidate a constituency from where he can contest the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

Senior BJP leader Murli Manohar Joshi. PTI

IBNLive reported that senior leader Dr Murli Manohar Joshi has refused to vacate his Varanasi seat for the Gujarat chief minister. Joshi had campaigned in Varanasi in an attempt to turn the tide in his favour to retain a seat he has held for a long time.

Earlier, the BJP leaders had suggested that Joshi run from Kanpur. However Kalraj Mishra, the incumbent from the constituency refused to vacate the seat for the veteran BJP leader, according to IBNLive:

Dr Joshi because of his stature as a senior BJP leader, as a veteran BJP leader, also someone himself is an upper caste brahmin, is someone who is also fond of his Hindutvavadi image is unwiling to give up the seat unless there is a specific commitment which is given to him by the BJP

However, he may have resigned himself to Modi running from the temple town. Joshi recently told party president Rajnath Singh that he would vacate the seat only if the party came up with an alternative acceptable to him, Times of India reported.

The BJP encountered a similar problem with Lucknow where Lalji Tandon said he would vacate his seat, but only for Modi. Tandon's expressed his wishes even though Singh had expressed interest in running from Lucknow.

Recently, reports emerged that senior leader Sushma Swaraj also expressed her dissatisfaction with the way seat distribution was being approached. At a recent party meeting, Swaraj allegedly objected to the party's dodgy alliances and later skipped 'chai pe charcha' to hash it out with Singh over the Varanasi seat. However, senior BJP leaders, including Swaraj have denied there has been any infighting over seats at all.

Infighting so close to the elections is very likely to play against Modi who campaigned in the state extensively with the desire to recreate BJP's performance in the 1998 polls. While close aides like Amit Shah believe that Modi should accept the party worker's demands and contest from Varanasi, if the existing deadlock continues then so will the suspense over Modi's seat.

Live: Kejriwal’s auto drivers booked for traffic violations

8.oo pm: Auto drivers who took Kejriwal from airport to station booked for traffic violations

The Mumbai traffic police has issued notices to three auto drivers, who were part of Arvind Kejriwal's cavalcade, for violating traffic rules.

Kejriwal landed at the Mumbai airport this morning from where he took an auto-rickshaw to Andheri station in suburban Mumbai. Ten auto rickshaws were part of his caravan from the airport to Andheri station. It was seen that many Aam Aadmi Party activists were hanging in the auto rickshaws and also reported broke a signal.

"We have issued notices to three auto drivers, who were the part of Kejriwal's cavalcade, under section 177 of the Motor Vehicle Act for violating the traffic rules and the auto drivers will be produced in the court," Pratap Dighavkar, deputy commissioner of police (traffic) told Firstpost.

He added that further action will be taken accordingly.

4.43 pm: Time to fight another war of Independence, says Kejriwal

Addressing a gathering of party workers in Mumbai, Aam Aadmi leader Arvind Kejriwal said, "The leaders have looted the nation. It is time to fight another war of independence after Mahatma Gandhi. Neither BJP did anything for the Hindus nor Congress did anything for the Muslims. Now a miracle has happened. The common people have come out to the fore. The winning of 28 Assembly seats in Delhi is an example of that. There is no Modi wave in the country. I have travelled to many states recently and only saw wave of anger. This country has lot of money but the government do not have the intention for the development of the poor and the common people. This country can be rescued only by the Aam Aadmi."

3.40 pm: Did AAP workers deliberately damage public property?

Maharashtra Home Minister RR Patil today said his government will probe whether AAP supporters deliberately indulged in violence at the Churchgate station.

"We are investigating if AAP members have deliberately damaged public property during Arvind Kejriwal's visit to Mumbai," Patil told Firstpost correspondent Vishwas Waghmore.

AAP workers broke at least three metal detectors installed at Mumbai's Churchgate station.

1.14 pm: AAP says police were not prepared for the crowd

Reacting to the chaotic situation at Mumbai's Churchgate station, AAP spokesperson Preeti Sharma Menon told Firstpost that the police could have been better prepared. "It seemed as if the Mumbai police in this case were not fully prepared for it," he said.

Kejriwal has now left for a meeting with South Mumbai candidate Meera Sanyala at Nariman Point. - Firstpost Reporter Vishwas Waghmode.

1.05 pm: Despite special compartment, AAP supporters create chaos

According to CNN-IBN, the Western Railways arranged a special compartment for Arvind Kejriwal and his supporters, but despite this, authorities at the station could not manage the crowd resulting in chaotic scenes at the station.

An unidentified passenger at Churchgate station told CNN-IBN that there should have been more security at the venue.

"If they knew Kejriwal was coming here why didn't they provide more security? It should have been organised in a better way..."

12.30 pm: AAP supporters damage metal detectors at Churchgate station

Hundreds of supporters gathered at Mumbai's Churchgate station damaged metal detectors set up hoping to meet their party leader Arvind Kejriwal.

Kejriwal, sitting at the window, boarded a Churchgate train from Andheri. Firstpost/Parag Shinde

Television footage showed multiple supporters trying to push through single metal detectors with police personnel unable to control the mob-like situation.

Aam Aadmi Party Convener Arvind Kejriwal is set to launch his party's campaign in the state with two road shows in Mumbai

Kejriwal landed at the Mumbai airport this morning from where he took an auto-rickshaw to Andheri station in suburban Mumbai. He then boarded a local train to Churchgate where hundreds of his supporters gathered to welcome him.

Deadlock within BJP stalls Modi’s UP run as LS polls get closer

Senior BJP leader Murli Manohar Joshi. PTI

Dr Joshi because of his stature as a senior BJP leader, as a veteran BJP leader, also someone himself is an upper caste brahmin, is someone who is also fond of his Hindutvavadi image is unwiling to give up the seat unless there is a specific commitment which is given to him by the BJP

Lessons Kejriwal’s AAP can take from Karl Marx

Arvind Kejriwal. PTI.

In his tweet in Hindi, Kumar Biswas directly expressed his displeasure at the leadership. His expressions were of betrayal by his leadership as well as the new entrants to the party.

Deadlock within BJP stalls Modi’s run from UP as LS polls get closer

Senior BJP leader Murli Manohar Joshi. PTI

Dr Joshi because of his stature as a senior BJP leader, as a veteran BJP leader, also someone himself is an upper caste brahmin, is someone who is also fond of his Hindutvavadi image is unwiling to give up the seat unless there is a specific commitment which is given to him by the BJP

The moral hysteria of the Modi-Hitler analogy

Every country is confronted with certain choices when it goes to the polls. But India it seems is poised on the brink of something far more cataclysmic. Narendra Modi is not just a politician. He is now a "moral line of no return".

"It seems that, in the race towards higher GDP, the majority of India is willing to inject itself with the steroids of bigotry and ruthlessness. Ethics be damned," writes Thane Richard in an opinion piece for Quartz.com called "India crosses the moral line of no return if Narendra Modi becomes prime minister."

"Is it extreme to compare electing the BJP (with Modi at its head) to electing the Nazi party with Hitler as its chancellor?" wonders Richard. Then he answers his own question. "Maybe, but it is eerily similar in many ways."

Richard is the founder of Dabba, an independent digital radio station covering Indian politics and culture. He is an American but spent a few years in India, studying for a bit at St. Stephen's in New Delhi and working for awhile with Mahindra and Mahindra.

Richard is entitled to his opinion. Indeed there are many reasons why Indians should think long and hard about a Prime Minister Narendra Modi. But one must make a cogent argument against Modi. Just playing the big bad Hitler card is lazy scaremongering. Even worse, it does Modi's opponents no favours because it simply does not work.

People just do not respond to that kind of moral blackmail. It feels even more sanctimonious when it comes from someone outside India. By 2004 it was widely known that George W. Bush had invaded Iraq on false pretences. There were no WMDs stashed there. Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11 though many Americans were confused about that. Many American liberals threatened to move to Canada if Bush was re-elected. Should that not have been a "moral line of no return" for Americans"? Yet Americans voted for Bush in even greater numbers than they had during the hanging-chad victory of 2000. Four years later that same country elected a Barack Obama to office.

Narendra Modi. AFP.

All that goes to prove is that democracy follows its own logic separate from the moral compass of the pundits. And the breast-beating about a "moral line of no return" for India is a double standard because other countries seem to happily go back and forth between liberals and conservatives, autocrats and democrats without drawing the same kind of moral judgement. Italy, anyone? It's as if coming from the nation of Gandhi, India must be held to some kind of higher moral standard of electoral righteousness.

Richard writes that at least Germany had the excuse of being a shambles when it chose a Hitler. India, on the other hand, has "not just lost a war, or recently faced hyperinflation, or had her national pride stomped on by embarrassing terms of surrender." But in fact, it was an American presidential campaign which gave us the immortal winning line "It's the economy, stupid." That helped Bill Clinton unseat George H. W. Bush.

People want a better life for themselves and their children. And in elections all over the world, people choose candidates who they believe will give them that. That's nothing to be ashamed about. Modi's opponents need to articulate a cogent argument about why they feel he cannot give them that better life, or puncture his much-ballyhooed Gujarat development model.

But that does not mean Indians' hunger for a better life is automatically "greed without regard for cost". Other countries get to vote according to their pocketbooks. Which candidate will be better for the economy is a routine question in American polls. Why should Indians be obliged to vote as if they are voting for the Nobel Peace Prize?

One can understand Richard's frustration when an elegantly-dressed desi woman in Detroit tells him "Even if Narendra Modi was involved in the Gujarat riots, I don't care. His economic work wins out. I will vote for him." But equally well-dressed women went out and voted for Rajiv Gandhi and gave him a massive mandate immediately after the bloodbath of 1984. One terrible travesty cannot be used to give another horrific tragedy a pass. Modi should be held accountable for what happened in Gujarat under his watch, whether they be sins of commission or omission. And he has certainly not answered his critics satisfactorily. But communal violence in India did not begin with Gujarat 2002 and it certainly did not end there. Gujarat 2002 is a huge blot, it can even be a "deal breaker" as Richard dubs it, but let's not pretend it's a singular blot in Indian history.

Just as Richard remembers that woman in Detroit, I remember a long impassioned conversation with friends about the prospects and dangers of a Modi prime ministership. Finally a friend's wife turned around and said "I understand everything. But tell me, if not him, who should I vote for? Rahul? Hasn't the Congress been there long enough?"

Modi's opponents have to face the simple fact that one of the reasons Modi's candidature is making waves is that they have failed to present credible alternatives to him. That is why many seized upon Arvind Kejriwal with such relief after his New Delhi victory. They hoped that they had found in him the giant-killer that a Rahul Gandhi clearly was not. By fixating on Modi the Terrible, Richard ignores the basic precept of an election – one chooses among the options on offer. Just as once Americans had to choose between a cocky Bush and an awkward John Kerry and chose the former. Many longed wistfully for a Bill Clinton then but alas, Clinton was not in the running.

Modi by campaigning early and campaigning hard is trying to create an aura of inevitability around his candidature. That needs to be punctured. Documentarian Rakesh Sharma has released a dozen clips of speeches made by Modi post-2002. He tells Scroll.in those clips prove "Modi's more communal utterances have disappeared online. There's been a whitewash and a PR makeover of his image." Those are facts that deserve to be taken up, discussed and debated. But just trotting out the Hitler bogeyman will not do it.

Now even Rahul Gandhi is bringing up the Hitler analogy comparing Modi (without naming him) to Hitler who "was the biggest arrogant who thought people had no wisdom and there was no need to listen to them." Hitler's arrogance was not his biggest problem. And Rahul's grandmother was no shrinking violet herself. But Rahul would do better to sell himself as a candidate rather than try and sell the fear of Modi.

What neither Richard nor Rahul seem to get is that the Hitler analogy is shorthand for death marches, concentration camps and gas chambers. Even those who see Modi as hardline Hindu think that is too far-fetched and hysterical in 2014 India.

That kind of fearmongering does not even work among Muslims. As Hasan Suroor writes in Firstpost "Muslims don't so much fear Modi as they hate him." In fact, he goes on to say "most Muslims have sufficient faith in the inherent secularism and moderation of the vast majority of Hindus who, they firmly believe, will not allow Modi to run amuck."

It's ironic that unlike many wagging their fingers from outside India, Muslims in India seem to have more faith in India's democracy and not need to subject it to the Modi litmus test.

Cong says unfair to call Bansal tainted, may get LS poll ticket

New Delhi: Faced with a dilemma over handing tickets to leaders facing allegations of corruption, Congress today gave indications that while former Railway Minister Pawan Kumar Bansal could be re-nominated from Chandigarh, Pune MP Suresh Kalmadi may not be fielded in the upcoming polls.

"It is unfair to call Bansal tainted. No charge sheet has been framed against him. BJP has been leading a diatribe against him, but the fact is that there are no charges against Bansal," party spokesperson Randip Surjewala told reporters.

Pawan Kumar Bansal. AFP

The Congress spokesperson gave clear indications that the former Railway Minister will not be denied a ticket.

Party sources said that Congress's Central Election Committee has already cleared Bansal's name, but the candidature for Chandigarh was not announced in the first list to avoid a controversy when the party was making a big announcement of candidates for 194 seats.

The second list or a subsequent one will have Bansal's name, sources added.

A Special CBI court yesterday framed charges of criminal conspiracy and corruption against Bansal's nephew Vijay Singla and nine others who were arrested in the Rs 10-crore cash-for -post railway bribery case when the Congress leader was holding the railway portfolio.

With a row erupting over the case, Bansal resigned from the Union Cabinet.

Surjewala said that Bansal had resigned on moral grounds while indicating that Congress believes that no "convicted" leader, or those found involved in "heinous" crimes, should be fielded in the polls.

"Bansal has not been charge-sheeted. Nor is there any such allegation against him. As far as giving or not giving ticket is concerned, it is a decision taken by the Central Election Committee chaired by party President Sonia Gandhi.

"When that decision, which will be taken very soon, is announced, you can ask these questions," he said.

Surjewala, however, appeared to suggest that there was no similarity between the cases of Bansal and Suresh Kalmadi or former Maharashtra Chief Minister Ashok Chavan, who are facing allegations in connection with the Commonwealth Games and the Adarsh housing scams, respectively.

The duo are said to be campaigning to obtain Lok Sabha poll tickets for their wives.

"Till now, neither Kalmadi nor any family member of his has been either given or denied the ticket for Pune. So, the question is hypothetical," he said.

A senior party leader, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that no decision has been taken yet on giving a ticket to either Kalmadi or his wife.

The leader also refused to see a similarity between the cases of Bansal and Chavan.

"In every case, facts are always put (before CEC)," he said without elaborating further.

PTI

The moral hysteria of the Modi-Hitler analogy

Narendra Modi. AFP.

It's ironic that unlike many wagging their fingers from outside India, Muslims in India seem to have more faith in India's democracy and not need to subject it to the Modi litmus test.

Anna Hazare aides say he is unwell, after he skips Mamata’s Delhi rally

New Delhi: Anti-corruption activist Anna Hazare's aides today cited health problems for his skipping the rally addressed by Mamata Banerjee here after the event billed as a platform to launch the Trinamool Congress chief's national ambitions received a lukewarm response.

"Anna ji's health is our priority. So if he is unwell, he should not come out in this sunlight. And if he has decided, then he would be correct to do so. Anna had to convey a message, Mamataji is conveying the message," Sunita Godara, Anna's aide, told reporters.

A file photo of Anna Hazare.

During the rally, no reason was given for the absence of Hazare, who arrived here only last night ostensibly to attend the rally.

Hazare, who has expressed his support to Trinamool Congress and Bannerjee while snubbing his protege Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi party, had earlier said he would attend the rally.

Significantly, an Imam of Kolkata had issued a threat that he would withdraw support to Bannerjee if she shares dais with Hazare.

Hazare's aides also plaued down the thin turnout at the rally, saying it was a working day and people had to work to earn their livlihood.

"When does public gather? It should be a Sunday, evening time, should be a holiday to gather more people. People need to work for food and water...people gather on holidays more," Godara said.

Banerjee targeted both Congress and BJP besides arch-rivals Left parties during the rally and also singled out Narendra Modi without naming him saying the "leader of Gujarat" is "communal". She rubbished his claim about development in the state under his leadership.

Meanwhile, Gen V K Singh, who recently joined BJP, also met Hazare here today but ruled out any political move behind it.

"Can't I meet him without any purpose? He is unwell. Everytime he comes to Delhi, we meet. He is here so I came to meet him," Singh said.

He declined to comment on Banerjee's speech.

"I do not know what Mamataji is saying. I have come here to see Anna. He is unwell. If Annaji wishes and if his principles let him, he can campaign for me," Singh said.

PTI

Approval of EC need for campaign on social media: Chief Electoral Officer

Chennai: The approval of an Election Commission of India appointed panel is needed for launching a poll campaign in the social media, Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) Praveen Kumar said here today.

EC had sought clarification from AIADMK on its proposed social media campaign, he said, adding the party had said it would provide Compact Discs (CDs) of its propaganda material to the poll body. The material would be seen by a panel constituted for the purpose of monitoring such campaigns.

Representational image. AFP

On complaints related to implementation of the Model Code of Conduct, he said 8345 complaints had been received against defacement of walls in public properties and 4602 in private properties.

On an average about 300 phone calls are received at the Election Commission office every day on a host of poll related issues, including missing names in voters lists, he said.

On traders' grievances that cash was being seized by flying squads, he said it was mandatory to carry supporting documents. "One should be careful as some politicians may also use this excuse...that they are traders... it is not enough to make oral claims...documents must support the claims."

PTI

Why Lalu, Nitish are responsible for the Modi ‘wave’ in Bihar

"You can expect some most surprising results in this election from here. There have been several occasions in the past when a politically alive Bihar has shown the way country's polity has shaped up. There are indications that the BJP may well be sweeping elections in the state and if that happens if will simply be unstoppable at the national level", a senior Muslim JD(U) leader told Firstpost.

He rather ruefully admits that election results in Bihar might end up the Narendra Modi way. Another JD(U) leader, a prominent legislator said "Nitish Kumar will soon realise that severing ties with the BJP was his biggest political price. The emerging ground situation is a pointer that he will have to pay heavily for a completely misconceived decision."

His tone and tenor sounded more like one emanating from BJP ranks than to one belonging to its principal rival formation. However he says he is only calling the trends as he saw it, adding that he did not have any plans to switch sides to the BJP.

Nitish has also been accused of being too authoritarian: PTI

And he is not alone in his opinion.

Some ministers in Nitish government are feeling left out and are candid in sharing their disgruntlement. One of the party's most senior ministers, Narendra Singh has publicly voiced his disenchantment, while another minister, Renu Kushwaha, has timed her resignation from the party to coincide with her husband joining the BJP. All these factors are certainly impacting the electioneering and morale of JD(U) workers.

Elsewhere in Bihar, Lalu has not been able to resurrect his charisma or play his victim card beyond a point. More so, the continued defection of his close associates with varied caste profiles to both the JD(U) and BJP including those from his famed `M-Y' (Muslims and Yadavs) has left him shattered. Following his conviction in the fodder scam, Lalu himself can't fight elections, so his wife, sons and daughters are all up in the electoral arena.

As a consequence, campaigning for the RJD and Congress alliance has not picked up yet. Even Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar could be fighting a difficult battle from Sasaram on a Congress ticket.

"If Modi is able to make an overwhelming presence and dominate the public discourse against two formidable secularists, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav, then that could be suggestive of the evolving national mood", said another leader who has hopped between RJD and JD(U). He blames the two top leaders for taking a series of wrong steps, all of which have only ended up strengthening a rising popular perception that Modi has created an electoral wave.

While several prominent leaders from both these parties switched sides to the BJP, the party's hopes for a credible Yadav leader from Lalu's stable were fulfilled with Ram Kripal Yadav joining the BJP amid some fanfare at BJP central headquarters 11 Ashoka Road in New Delhi in the presence of party president Rajnath Singh and senior state leaders.

Yadav will take on Lalu's eldest daughter Misa from the RJD and Ranjan Yadav, Lalu's erstwhile friend and sitting MP from JD(U) in Patliputra constituency. Ram Kripal had won from here in 2004 (then called Patna before delimitation) but in 2009 Lalu Yadav took it away from him to contest there himself. Surprisingly, Lalu lost from here but the saving grace was that he won from Chapra, another constituency that he had fought.

Ram Kripal, a Rajya Sabha MP, had been one of Lalu's most formidable lieutenants for over three decades. His switching sides to the "communal" BJP has unnerved not just Lalu's clan and other RJD leaders, but also JD(U) leaders. Their uneasiness is rooted in the emerging ground reality that is crystallising after a series of political realignment -- beginning with Koeri community leader Upendra Kushwaha's decision to join the BJP and getting three seats in the bargain.

This was followed by Dalit leader Ramvilas Paswan defecting from the RJD-Congress combine to join the NDA and getting seven seats as part of the deal. Now Ram Kripal a known Yadav face joining the BJP – is giving out the impression that Modi has indeed become a shining face of the backward community and his party, the BJP was "accommodating all.

In contrast the so called messiahs of "inclusive" and "social justice" politics, Lalu and Nitish are looking rather exclusivist. This in fact, was exactly what Ram Kripal told the media after his decision to join the BJP.

He accused the RJD chief of being so concerned about the future of his sons and daughters, that he was willing to sacrifice long time loyalists like Ram Kripal.

Similarly, party colleagues have accused Nitish of never taking senior leaders into confidence and of running the party like his personal fiefdom.

"As they grew taller they started believing that we all exist because of them, forgetting that we all had some role in helping them reach where they are today. That's a mistake Nitish is making. He loves to dictate not consult. He had so much of goodwill and he didn't have a family to promote or a baggage to carry on", a leader who knows him closely said.

Modi too has an image of an arrogant and autocratic leader, but a number of leaders of various political hues in Bihar told Firspost that Modi represents a structured party where voices of others also matter. The BJP Prime Ministerial candidate is also consciously working on an image overhaul to appear nationally acceptable.

It was not without reason that Modi in a recent outing in Purnea, repeated what he said in Patna that he came from the land of "Dwarkadheesh" (Lord Krishna's land) and as such was the protector of the Yaduvanshi's (of the socially dominant Yadavas) in Bihar and UP.

Kushwaha, Ramvilas Paswan and Ramkripal have shown the way the wind could move on the penultimate day.

People in Assam wary of BJP’s anti-poor agenda: Gaurav Gogoi

Given his academic qualification and the connections he can easily boast of, he could have chosen a comfortable corporate career and lead a cool life of affluence. But Gaurav Gogoi, a Public Administration degree-holder from New York University and only son of Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, preferred to chart a much tougher path in politics. At a time when the concept of dynastic politics is taking a hit in India, Gaurav, who is now the Congress candidate for the Lok Sabha constituency of Kaliabor in Assam, has to face challenges not only from the wave created by BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi but also suffer under the baggage of the UPA government at the Centre.

Aware of the obstacles ahead, the young Gaurav speaks to Firstpost on how he intends to make an impact in his first big battle of his political career. He also gives us an insight of his thoughts on the Narendra Modi wave, the challenges from AIUDF and how his father inspires him. The excerpts:

You have always stayed outside Assam for most of your life. How are you establishing the connect with the local people? How are you preparing for your campaign?

I returned to Assam in the middle of 2010 and since then I have been involved with the socio-economic development of the state. Since my arrival I have travelled the length and breadth of the state. During these tours I met countless farmers, teachers, students, tribals, and flood-affected people. This has helped me understand their challenges they face in their everyday lives. In fact, to try and get a first-hand experience and to find solutions for their problems I also started a non-profit organisation. I also invited Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz to increase the financial literacy among the common people. Stiglitz also spoke about an economy model for Assam. Moreover, I have organised training workshops for youths to encourage entrepreneurship. This experience has brought me closer to the people of the state. Politics has given me a bigger platform to address the problems affecting my state. Politics is a medium for me in the area of socio-economic development of the state.

Gaurav Gogoi (L) with his father Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. Image courtesy Gaurav's Facebook account

What will you focus on primarily as a first time MP if you get elected?

I had held a meeting of volunteers sometime back in my Lok Sabha constituency of Kaliabor and people from 200 villages attended it. This survey effectively captured what people want and the crucial needs of the people were also identified. It is clear that erosion caused by rivers is a major problem. The region also needs scientific approaches in agriculture. There is the problem of unemployment among the youth as well. Based on the feedback of that survey, I have divided my work into two missions – water and youth.

In the water mission, I would move forward to tackle the problems based on my personal learning gathered from the survey. The focus would be primarily on the problems of flood, irrigation and ensuring safe drinking water.

My other mission is on the youth. I would like to bring quality to higher education in the state, transform colleges and universities into centres of research, technology and entrepreneurship. I hope that colleges in Assam will have state-of-art science and computer laboratories. For this we hope to attract the best people in teaching.

What you just said gives a picture of near perfection. If you can achieve at least 50 percent of what you said just now will be a great success. But where will you get the money for it? It needs massive investments.

Yes. If I can achieve 50 percent of objectives in five years this will be an encouraging start. And regarding the funding, if I can gather like-minded people from all walks of life —doctors, lawyers, professors, students, teachers etc.—apart from politicians and form a big common platform, I believe we can urge the government at the Centre to give more attention to the state.

Why should people vote for you? What difference will you make to the people of Assam in general and to the people of Kaliabor, your constituency in particular?

I have not appeared in the scene suddenly. I have been in the socio-economic sector for long and know how to work for all-round development of all. I will not quit and keep working until I can execute what I have planned. This is a good enough reason for the people to vote for me.

There is a talk going on that being Tarun Gogoi's son helped you in getting a ticket? What do you have to say on that?

I believe people are extremely wise in their decision. They want emphatic people to come forward and join politics. It is equally important for the people to see the commitment and capability of the politician. I am well-educated and people will find quality in my work. People now prefer young politicians with bright ideas irrespective of their family background. As a matter of fact being from a political family does not qualify at all as a quality to join politics.

Do you believe all sections of Congress are fine with you getting a ticket and there is no dissidence in any corner of the party even silent ones?

Since 2001, Congress has been continuously winning elections in Assam be it panchayat, Assembly or parliamentary. In 2011, we won the Assembly polls with a record margin getting the highest number of seats. This would not have been possible had there been any internal rancor or differences. Our party organisation is strong right from the worker to the senior cabinet level. There is no doubt that because of the strong organisational strength we won these elections. This phenomenon will be replicated in the coming Lok Sabha elections.

Many pre-poll surveys are giving Narendra Modi the edge over Congress. Your party may not believe in these surveys but you cannot deny the Modi wave. What is your take on that?

UPA did historic work in lifting people out of poverty and to transform the rural economy in villages. We have brought in significant legislations like the MGNREGA, Land Acquisition Act, RTI, Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana, Rajiv Awas Yojana etc. People from the poor and middle class sections have realised that their quality of life improved under UPA's social welfare programmes.

The way Modi attacked these socio-economic schemes show their hidden agenda to stop all subsidies and schemes for the poor. To speak specifically about Assam, people in the state are extremely wary of BJP's hidden agenda. The BJP is poaching AGP members but any amount of introduction of new members to the party will not help BJP. People in Assam will repose faith in Congress under Rahul Gandhi and help the country go for a comprehensive change.

Usually there are complains that MPs from Assam are hardly vocal in Parliament and perhaps it includes the present chief minister as well who remained a MP for long. There are a lot of expectations from you. Will we hear your voice in Parliament if you win?

This is a wrong perception that MPs from Assam don't speak in Parliament. The MPs from Assam are given due respect by the Central leadership and even given cabinet rank. In any case I will ensure that the voice of the commonest will reach the well of Parliament

What kind of threat do you anticipate from the growing clout of AIUDF (All India United Democratic Front)? Don't you fear with the reach they command in the Muslim community, your voter base which is massive in the community will be eroded?

There is nothing to worry from AIUDF. They are not concerned about the people who vote for them. In 2011 during the floods in my constituency the local AIUDF MLA did not even bother to visit the area. This show a clear disconnect between the party and the people. There are no chances of an AIUDF victory. I can tell you that there will no impact on the Congress vote share and the voter base of AIUDF will decrease.

You will be one of the youngest MPs provided you get into the House. What message do you have for the youths of Assam who are battling problems like unemployment, getting misguided by anti-social elements etc.?

Stop blaming someone else for the problems in society and being lazy and unproductive. You should learn to be responsible for your own action. Be a part of the change message. I believe the time to sit back and blame others is truly over. Work hard and persevere to build an environment of prosperity and optimism.

How much do you think the social media is aiding you in your endeavour? Is it making any extra impact apart from the traditional electioneering methods like roadshows, banners, public rallies etc.?

On social media we get to know the feedback of the people from al backgrounds. This gives me a chance to learn, correct and connect with the young people. I can also identify with their aspirations and communicate the intention behind my own work.

Before we conclude, who do you consider as your role model?

I have always considered my father as my living role model for his humility, sincerity, commitment with the way he approaches politics. I also admire Rahul Gandhi's vision for India. I am indeed excited to ensure that we will be able to bring upon systemic change in politics and a substantial change in governance.

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