Countdown for the Lok Sabha elections 2014 has already started and it won't be an exaggeration to say that the UPA and the Congress in particular are in dire straits. What is apparent is that despite an inkling of the impending disaster, the Congress has so far been unable to arrest this downslide. The BJP's announcement of its prime ministerial candidate in Narendra Modi is only making matters worse for the ruling Congress.
The unfolding national picture showed that if the general elections are held today the NDA alliance comprising BJP, Shiv Sena and Akali Dal will get between 211-231 seats as per the Lokniti, CSDS-IBN National Tracker survey. The Congress-led alliance UPA, including NCP, Kerala allies and JMM, will get anywhere between 107-127 seats.
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi. PTI
In the last Lok Sabha elections in 2009, the Congress had won 206 seats while the BJP 116. Among other significant parties, the Trinamool Congress is expected to win between 20 and 28 seats, the AIADMK between 15 and 23 seats and the Left Front between 15 and 23 seats. The Samajwadi Party, which is now acting as the life support system for UPA 2, will get 8-14 seats. Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party is likely to get 10-16 seats in a January poll. Despite all the noise, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party will only get between 6-12 seats if it goes national.
"There is cause for celebration as you have given us seats beyond 200. As a political activist it is nice to see numbers come in our favour but we also need to ensure that my nose is to the ground and increase our vote share. There is clearly an anti-UPA and anti-Congress mood in the country," BJP spokesperson Smriti Irani told CNN-IBN during a panel discussion.
Irani also said that in the remaining days the BJP will target the absolute majority mark of 272 seats in a house of 543.
"We are absolutely sure of reaching the 272 mark on our ow in our Mission 272+. We are not thinking about alliances now," she said.
The BJP spokesperson admitted that the Narendra Modi factor has been a great boost.
"People are looking for decisive leadership. We are extremely jubilant with the response of Modi's rallies be it Gorakhpur or Goa. Modi has a proven track record and a vision for India and he is the biggest political leader in India at present," Irani said.
Firstpost's editor-at-large, Dhiraj Nayyar agreed that the response to Modi has been phenomenal.
"Modi has captured the imagination. The increasing shift towards the BJP has happened more after he was declared as their prime ministerial candidate. In fact, the youth of the country are not looking into the age of the leader but into the message. That's why even though Rahul Gandhi is 20 years younger than Modi he is not making enough impact," Nayyar said.
Although the Nationalist Congress Party, or NCP, found it difficult to believe what the survey revealed, it accepted that the Congress is in trouble. However, the Maharashtra based party reaffirmed its allegiance to the national outfit.
"All the 2004 surveys were proved wrong despite their predictions that Atal Bihari Vajpayee would return to power. The actual result was that Congress and its allies won. We are firm ally of the UPA," said NCP spokesperson DP Tripathi.
But the NCP leader had a word of advise for the national party particularly for its lack of coordination with allies.
"Congress has to learn to be united with its allies. After the poll defeat, Congress admitted that they need introspection politically and organisationally. Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi has himself admitted that the party is in crisis. The important thing is to see whether the solutions they are taking are right or wrong," Tripathi said.
The New Indian Express, editorial director, Prabhu Chawla also blamed Congress' ally problems as one of the main reasons for its trouble.
"The broken allies have harmed the Congress more. On its own, the party's vote share has actually come down just 1.5 percent than its 2009 tally. The vote loss in Andhra Pradesh is a major factor for the party. The party is also suffering a lot in Rajasthan, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh where the BJP has made massive gains," Chawla said.
Columnist Pushpesh Pant felt that the BJP gains in Uttar Pradesh were also because of the mistakes of Samajwadi Party government in the state.
"People will vote in large numbers for the BJP because of poor performance by Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav. This is a bad time for Yadavs. All OBCs are uniting against Yadavs," Pant said, delivering a caveat.
Lokiniti Network national convener, Sandeep Shastri highlighted on the all-round loss of the Congress.
"Across groups save in the case of Muslims, Dalits and tribals the BJP is ahead of the Congress in the whole country," Shastri said.
Like the NCP, the Trinamool Congress, which has turned out to be the third largest party as per the study, also did not quite agree with the findings.
"We are seriously disappointed by the numbers shown by the survey. The ground reality is very different. In our assessment, we are winning 32 seats and we are playing only for 10. The Mamata Banerjee government which is halfway through has reached out to the grassroots," said Trinamool Congress spokesperson and MP Derek O' Brien.
Brien did not spill out the beans on his party's strategies when asked about possible alliances.
"Now our focus is only on winning as much seats as possible. On the so-called alliances, the focus will be after 15 May. For now, we believe we will be able to win 42 seats in West Bengal and Mamata Banerjee will have a decisive role to play in Delhi," he said.
What was interesting to watch was the Aam Aadmi Party's approach in the debate despite being set to get a paltry 6-12 seats as per the national projection.
"Both the Congress and BJP are afraid of us. Let us put up our candidates and begin our campaign. It is not the time to decide who is No.1 or No. 2 enemy. It is a fight against corruption and misgovernance. The BJP is not an alternative of the Congress. I don't see any difference between BJP and Congress policies except for communalism and secularism. AAP is now the central point of political discourses," said AAP spokesperson Ashutosh.
BJP's Irani was quick to respond.
"The AAP is officially a part of the corrupt UPA combine which the people will reject," she said.
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