The real importance of Modi’s rise: A chief minister as prime minister

It was easy to miss it in all the hype that has surrounded Arvind Kejriwal and the Aam Aadmi Party in the last two months. The fact is that the rise and rise of Narendra Modi is the big political story of the last four months -- since he was named the BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate in September 2013. The latest results of the CNN-IBN-CSDS Election Tracker are revealing. In July 2013, 19 percent of respondents said that Modi was their preferred choice for Prime Minister. Six months later, in January 2014, that number has shot up to 34 percent. Modi's anointment as his party's Prime Ministerial candidate seems to have lifted the BJP's fortunes. In the Election Tracker six months ago, the BJP was struggling to hit the 180 seat mark. Now, it seems set to cross 200, its largest tally ever.

Modi's rise is interesting for several reasons. But none is perhaps more important than the fact that he has broken the glass ceiling for regional leaders in the insular Delhi-based national leaderships of major parties. The Congress has always kept its High Command, presided over by the Gandhi family, at an elevated level. If a non-Gandhi has become PM or PM candidate, it is at the pleasure of the High Command. State Chief Ministers are permanently on a lower pedestal and any explicit or implicit aspiration for a shot at the top job could result in their fall from even that lower rung.

But the BJP has been no different -- for the purposes of Lok Sabha elections --- with the Delhi-based 'national ' leadership – whether Vajpayee or Advani -- traditionally holding the balance of power. Modi has broken through. He has shown that it is indeed possible to project success at the regional level on to the bigger national stage. That he comes from a mid-size state, which sends only 26 MPs to the Lok Sabha – and which isn't in the politically dominant Hindi heartland -- makes his foray into the 'national' psyche even more impressive.

Of course, Modi is not the first person who served as Chief Minister to be a Prime Ministerial candidate – Morarji Desai and VP Singh would claim that mantle though they became Prime Ministers much after their tenures as CMs had finished. Should the BJP win, Modi won't even be the first serving Chief Minister to become Prime Minister – that place in history is taken by H.D. Deve Gowda. But unlike Desai, Singh (who were national Delhi-based leaders rather than regional satraps when they became PM) and the accidental Gowda, Modi is the first Chief Minister who is running for the country's top job on the plank of his track record (of good governance) as a successful Chief Minister.

Narendra Modi in this file photo. AFP

This is an encouraging trend for India from a governance point of view. The real nuts and bolts of governance are best learnt at the state level. It is state Governments which ultimately deliver most public services – whether education, health, roads and power – and welfare programmes. It is in the efficient delivery of these services and programmes that India faces its most daunting challenges. 'National' leaders who have never served in the states are unlikely to be as well versed with the nuts and bolts of policy implementation that state leaders are. That has been one of the fatal flaws of the Congress-led UPA, which has missed the wisdom and experience of successful regional leaders in Government.

The ascendancy of a serving Chief Minister to the country's top job could also provide a much needed boost to federalism. There is only so much the Central Government in Delhi can do to deliver all that India needs. In fact, there are several contentious policy spaces like labour laws which are best lcy eft to the states, rather than to a coalition-constrained Centre. Modi would know that. Should he become Prime Minister, he would be in a good place to devolve more power to states, particularly on the nitty- gritty of implementation while the Centre only sets the broad policy agenda. Of course, there is always a probability that Modi will abandon his federalist leanings should he become Prime Minister. But that would be a terrible waste of his potential to shake up business-as-usual in governance.

Needless to say, whether he wins or loses in 2014, Modi is not forever. But the demonstration effect of his rise could prompt other regional stalwarts (from the BJP and from non-BJP, non-Congress parties) to go national in the years to come. For the BJP, Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Goa Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar could conceivably do a Modi outshining the Delhi-based national leadership. If Arvind Kejriwal is sensible and can summon some patience, he should focus on doing a good job of governing Delhi as Chief Minister and then propelling himself onto the bigger national stage. Of course, there is no guarantee of success. Some regional stalwarts have tried and failed in their national ambition. Both Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati have tried to step out of Uttar Pradesh, but it is their less than stellar track records in governance rather than their regional confine that have proved a stumbling block.

The Modi Model , defined for the purposes of this article as the prospect of a successful Chief Minister as Prime Ministerial contender, is a delicious prospect for India's democracy, federalism and governance. That is Modi's lrea; egacy irrespective of the 2014 outcome.