Why Jayalalithaa’s PM ambitions are not as far fetched as you think

Is Amma set to be our next Prime Minister?

In Chennai, the 'Jaya for PM' posters are out in full force, but outside Tamil Nadu, these ambitions have been at best, discussed academically as a not impossible yet highly unlikely outcome. It has been perceived that too many political planets would have to align for this to become a reality.

Political commentators and analysts have so far outlined two likely scenarios in which the Tamil Nadu Chief Minster could take over the country's top job.

Jayalalithaa to take Delhi by storm? PTI

The first is that she emerges as a strong consensus candidate in the event that the BJP becomes the single largest party, but doesn't have enough seats to form the government. If the BJP is forced to depend on regional parties who don't want to see Modi as the Prime Minister, Jayalalithaa could well be seen as an acceptable candidate for the post.

The second situation in which she could potentially be Prime Minister, is in the event she throws her weight behind the 'third front' that is being mooted by Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav along with West Bengal and Odisha Chief Ministers, Mamata Banerjee and Naveen Patnaik.

However, the third front is largely being seen as Mulayam's 'I want to be the PM' party. It is quite unlikely that he would be willing to step aside for Jayalalithaa's prime ministerial ambitions merely in the interest of seeing a 'non Congress, non BJP' government at the centre.

Both scenarios require far too many factors falling into place at the same time, which is why Jayalalithaa has not been seen as a real contender in the race.

But according to this column by Praveen Chakravarty in the Business Standard, the poll mathematics are actually tilted quite favourably towards the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister.

He points out that given Tamil Nadu's voting history (which almost always gives one party a clean sweep of all its 39 seats) and the multi-cornered contests in bigger states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, which could see seat share split among two or more parties, the numbers could actually add up in favour of Jayalalithaa.

Chakravarty notes that Tamil Nadu along with Andhra Pradesh, has traditionally delivered more seats to its winning parties than states with larger voting populations, like Uttar Pradesh or Maharashtra. In a best case scenario, the state has given its winner all 39 seats, which is still 4 seats more than the highest ever number of seats won by a single party from Uttar Pradesh.

"With a potential split in Andhra Pradesh looming and a muddling of coalitions in the state since the 2009 elections, it is reasonable to expect, based on historical patterns, that the winner in TN will secure the maximum number of seats in any given state in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections", he adds.

Jayalalithaa being an astute veteran has probably already realised this. Which is probably why the pitch for the 'Tamil Nadu's first prime minister' is getting shriller and louder. Her party, the AIADMK has already made it clear that they will not ally with the BJP, although as noted by Firstpost editor G Pramod Kumar, in real terms, this means some space for the Left and the minorities. He says:

The alliance arithmetic makes it very clear that the AIDMK will not go it alone as was originally announced. Going by the 2011 elections, the party is far stronger than the DMK on its own. However, the allies of the DMK will make up for the shortfall. Therefore, Jayalalithaa will certainly need at least the Left with her - the CPM and CPM together have about five per cent voteshare.

The party also has history on its side. It has an average voteshare percentage (based on the last four general elections - 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha, and 2006 and 2011 assembly elections) of 30 plus compared to DMK's 24 plus. During the last ten years, the AIADMK always scored higher than the DMK, except in 2009. (Read more)

On the ground in Tamil Nadu meanwhile, the fervour is going into overdrive.

The AIADMK has said it has received over 1,000 applications from its workers urging that Chief Minister Jayalalithaa contest from their constituency in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. And Jayalalithaa herself has not been holding back.

On Saturday, the Chief Minister told a crowd of people gathered for a pongal function, that she was confident that a change would happen at the Centre so that she could deliver more for the people of her state.

"If they have to be implemented, changes should happen at the (all) India level. With your unflinching support, I am confident that that change will happen," she said.

Narendra Modi may have to watch out. The biggest spoil sport at his PM party could well be his 'dear friend' Jayalalithaa.