Saturday, February 15, 2014

AAP loses numbers game in Delhi, but Kejriwal may still emerge the winner

Arvind Kejriwal resigns and he must be a happy man.

The numbers - 27 vs 42 - do not tell the full story. In normal circumstances, it would have been a big embarrassment for any party in power, a signal to go. But that is not the case with Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party. It can still claim victory in today's defeat in the Delhi assembly. It is not often that the biggies BJP and Congress come together against a new outfit with such force and aggression. That they had to hide behind a technicality to evade discussion on the Jan Lokpal Bill, shows them in poorer light. No wonder, Kejriwal and colleague Manish Sisodia appeared pleased while leaders from other parties ranted against the tabling of the bill.

Arvind Kejriwal. AFP

Arvind Kejriwal. AFP

The message coming out of the Delhi assembly is clear. The Congress and the BJP did not want to discuss the bill, whatever its merit, while the AAP sought it. The bill might be the personal project of Kejriwal with little support from others in the political spectrum, but it still packs enough punch to scare others. He can go back to the masses confidently again - after loss of face over the Somnath Bharti episode - claiming to be the sole crusader against corruption in Delhi.

His party was outnumbered, but not outmaneuvered. With the defeat in the assembly he gets the halo of martyrdom back again. It is foolish to assume that the party did not know what it was doing and that the bill would fail in the test of numbers - it is already in a minority in the 70-member House. He wanted to make a point and the defeat today amplified what he sought to convey. By hiding behind a technicality, the BJP and the Congress walked into a trap.

Let's accept it. The Jan Lokpal bill of the AAP is not about the institution of Jan Lokpal anymore. It is a political football being kicked around for electoral gains. The AAP wants to consolidate its already significant base in Delhi and spread into the NCR region and adjoining states quickly before the general elections. Hanging on to the government in Delhi does not serve any purpose. It only ties up senior leaders in the National Capital and creates scope for negative publicity. Corruption is still the most potent weapon at its command and it helps the party put opponents on the defensive. There has been enough hint already that Kejriwal would quit over the bill. Probably he was looking for the best possible timing.

Forty-eight days is not enough to judge a government. But Arvind Kejriwal's was an unconventional one by all standards. It came to power riding a wave of popular goodwill cutting across class barriers. Probably it was never the intention of the party to be at the helm so early, but the Congress created a situation where it had to be there. The stability of the government was always in question as was its legitimacy. That perhaps was the reason the party was more keen on reaching out to its core base than focussing on governance. In the 48 days, it lost some of its middle class support and almost the entire media sympathy. Conflicts within the party gave it a bad name. But the goodwill for the party remains largely intact. In Delhi now, it is much more than a match for the other big two parties.

The party has caught the nation's imagination. Away from the responsibilities of governance Kejriwal and his party would engage their energy to harness the goodwill they have earned for a strong show in the Lok Sabha elections. They simply could not have delayed abdicating power in Delhi any further.

Placed where he is today, Arvind Kejriwal must be a satisfied man today. The media's opinion can wait.


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