Why Jaya’s first mover advantage brightens her Delhi prospects

Ever since she came back to power in the state in 2011, Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa has been very clear that she wants her party to win all the seats in the state and Pondicherry and be a force to reckon with at the centre. Although she hadn't specifically spelt out if it meant a role for her as the Prime Minister, her supporters - including senior leaders and ministers - kept the "Jaya for PM" chorus going.

On her 66th birthday on Monday, the chorus had more explicit details.

J Jayalalithaa. Reuters

The massive cake that her party workers arranged at the AIADMK office in the city is perhaps the harbinger of things to come, and possibly the first visible sign of Jaya's Prime Ministerial ambitions: the cake was modelled on the Parliament building. The same Parliament building was also prominent in newspaper advertisements, wall-posters, banners and the party workers' slogans.

The celebrations in the city and elsewhere were extravagant. In comparison, last year Jaya had advised her party workers not to do anything big. This time, there was absolutely no way that it could have been a small affair because, other than a number of announcements that targeted both the people and state's economy, the birthday was an occasion to kickstart the party's Parliamentary election campaign.

Beneath the big infrastructure and industrial projects, pro-poor announcements and the Parliament-shaped birthday cake, the real message was that the AIADMK is very serious about making it big in the Lok Sabha elections and Jaya assuming the role of the prime minister. Neither the party (officially) nor Jaya personally has mentioned the PM-word, but everybody else in the party has said it. Moreover, the signs are too obvious to overlook.

So, her 66th birthday was the headstart for both Jaya and the party. While the principal opposition parties such as the DMK, Congress, DMK and BJP are still struggling to court suitable allies, Jaya announced her list of candidates for all the seats, including the ones that might go to her allies CPM and CPI. In a week, the party will begin its campaign.

Jaya's list of candidates is also interesting - only three of the nine sitting MPS have been allowed to contest again. All the others are new faces and they have been selected on the basis of their winnability. Fifteen of them are lawyers and four doctors; and four of them are women.

This is a remarkable advantage because the opposition parties are far from finalising their list. Without a sense of the seats that will go to the allies, it's hard to draw up a list. In contrast, Jaya's list not only allows her candidates and party workers to begin the campaign, but it also puts pressure on the CPM and the CPI to settle for whatever is being negotiated with the AIADMK.

It's also an indication that the left parties will not get the same number of seats - three each - that they had been given last time. This time, they will have to be satisfied with two each. The AIADMK candidates will be withdrawn once the constituencies for the CPM and the CPI are finalised.

Jaya's first mover advantage will be in action within a week because along with the list of candidates, the first leg of her campaign schedule is also ready. She will begin her month-long roadshow on 3 March in Kanchipuram. Jaya had followed a similar strategy in the Assembly elections as well when she had moved first with her list of candidates.

Jaya's early move will be further strengthened by a lack of any anti-incumbency sentiment, the popularity of a string of successful social welfare measures and large-scale infrastructure and industrial investments including the the second phase of the Metro (Rs 36,000 crore) and MoUs with industrial majors (reportedly 33 MoUs at Rs 31,706 crore). The possibility of her deciding who forms the next government in Delhi will be an added advantage. In fact, she begins with tremendous incumbent advantage.

In contrast, the opposition has a long way to go. The biggest stumbling block is getting appropriate allies. Going by the current state of affairs, even if they manage to get together as two or three formations, they won't be cohesive enough because the processes had not been natural. More over, by the time they come together, Jaya would have already stolen the march by a mile. It certainly looks Advantage Jaya. She knows it and has begun early to capture as much ground as possible.

Will we see her as the Prime Minister? Compared to last year, the prospects look certainly brighter because there are unmissable signs. One thing is certain - post elections, she will play a big role, maybe even call the shots.