Uttarakhand Congress stalwart Satpal Maharaj's entry into the BJP and finance minister P Chidambaram's exit from the electoral arena in Tamil Nadu may appear unrelated, but the timing of the incidents have some common factors that reflect the troubled times that lie ahead for the Congress.
Maharaj, a four time MP and a spiritual leader who reportedly commands the support of six MLAs, has joined the ranks of the BJP today. This signals the destabilisation of the Congress government in Uttarakhand, which survives on a wafer-thin majority with the help of four independents.
P Chidambaram. PTI
Meanwhile, Chidambaram's decision not to contest from Sivaganga and instead seek a ticket for his son Karti, signifies disintegration of the Congress as a force in Tamil Nadu, a state that sends 39 MPs to Parliament.
Congress' tallest leader in all of South India, with the possible exception of AK Antony (who incidentally has also declined to contest the Lok Sabha elections), developing cold feet because he senses defeat is the most telling story of morale in the higher echelons of the party. The mood among the party leaders and workers in Tamil Nadu, which along with neighbouring Andhra Pradesh helped the Congress to come to power in 2004 and 2009, can be assessed by Chidambaram's conscious bid to keep his otherwise shining political CV intact.
Chidambaram's other ministerial colleagues at the the centre — GV Vasan, as also former Union minister and PCC president KV Thangkabalu — had earlier gone public expressing their reluctance to fight parliamentary elections. They went to the extent of denying reports that speculated their possible candidature. The common explanation by the party leaders for all this has been rather simple - because Congress could not find an ally, the leaders are wary of their prospects.
But the fact that the Congress, which has fought elections in Tamil Nadu for the past 30 years in alliance with either of the two Dravidian parties, did not find an ally is an indicator of the results the nation could see on 16 May, and the shape national politics will take thereafter.
Contrast this with the BJP making a history for itself down south, in terms of finding willing alliance partners, on the same day Chidambaram withdrew from fighting the elections.
The BJP was able to stitch up a surprise umbrella coalition with five regional parties: Vijayakanth's DMDK, S Ramadoss's PMK, Vaiko's MDMK, IJK and KMDK. The last two could contest polls under the BJP's symbol. Though the BJP did not have more than two percent votes in the state in the past, the fact that it could build and lead a front in Tamil Nadu speaks volumes on the kind of popular sentiment Modi has generated.
Tamil Nadu's politics has traditionally been bipolar with smaller parties joining either of the two fronts (led by either DMK or AIADMK). BJP leaders have been going gaga over the developments and that has been making Congress leaders feel even more dejected.
This signifies three things — Modi despite a clear language barrier has been able to leave an impression among people. He is no political untouchable. Instead, he is on track, expanding the NDA.
Second, the BJP was able to do what even the Congress couldn't do, albeit notionally, to lead a political front. It could make DMDK and PMK come together, two parties that have otherwise constantly quarrelled . The BJP is adding to its percentage of votes little by little and building a kitty that could take it to victory. This alternate alliance in Tamil Nadu expects to gain 15 to 16 percent of the votes and around 10 seats. The numbers are rather optimistic, but that expectation, real or fictitious, is keeping BJP workers happy.
Third, if it is able to win some seats it could approach either the DMK or the AIADMK and offer support after the poll. Modi shares an excellent personal rapport with Jayalalithaa while Karunanidhi has already made positive overtures. His son Alagiri is using every opportunity to praise BJP's prime ministerial candidate.
The party is also hoping to eat into Congress' social support base, which broadly constitutes of those who wish to be more in alignment with nationalist thinking, besides identification on caste and broader Dravidian sentiments.
Many believe that the BJP's decision in 2004 to dump the DMK and join hands with the AIADMK changed the game in Congress's favour. In 2014 the party is taking a completely different position, floating a front on its own. Can the BJP-led front make an impact?
An analysis suggests that in 2009 elections, the DMK front won a majority of seats but the winning margin in 21 seats was less than 50,000 votes and only nine of the winners won by over a lakh votes. The DMDK played the spoiler, bagging 10 percent of votes. The DMDK couldn't win seats then but in the assembly elections, its numbers went past the DMK.
This gives a psychological high to Modi's campaign. Not only because BJP was finding allies down south, but because even in worst times, it was South India which saved the Congress from falling from grace beyond a certain point and helped it come to power in the last two elections. The emerging trends, particularly in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, offer no such solace for the Congress this time around.
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