Even before Congress could heave a sigh of relief after bamboozling Parliament to create India's 29th state of Telangana, it is not clear if it will reap the fruits of its efforts fully. A Lokniti-IBN National Election Tracker Survey suggests that while the Congress is ahead of the pack in the Lok Sabha polls in the new state, followed closely by the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS), in the assembly elections the situation could be just the opposite.
Telangana will vote schizophrenically in its very first election after creation. This could be one reason why the K Chandrasekhar-led TRS has declined to merger with Congress.
Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) President K Chandrashekar Rao with party General Secretary K Keshava Rao at the party's politburo meeting in Hyderabad on Monday. PTI
It appears that the last 10 years of dilly-dallying on Telangana are likely to cost the Congress heavily if the Assembly polls are held today. The national party went ahead to create Telangana despite stiff opposition from its own cadre in Andhra and Rayalaseema regions in the hope that it would get the majority of the 17 Lok Sabha seats in the forthcoming elections. However, with the TRS refusing to merge, this sweep is unlikely. The party has already lost hope of any electoral victory in the Seemandhra region. Andhra Pradesh as a whole has 42 Lok Sabha seats.
The Lokniti-IBN survey was conducted in Andhra Pradesh in January and February 2014. It found that 42 percent of the respondents were willing to vote for TRS in Telangana if the Assembly elections were held today. Only 20 percent decided to cast their votes in favour of Congress. The sample size in Telangana was 719 in January while it was 695 in February. With TRS getting more than double its vote share, the national party is likely to go into a tizzy. The survey discovered that the credit for the creation of Telangana had mostly gone to the TRS followed by the Central government. The Congress party per se could hardly gain from it. In the Lok Sabha, the Congress voteshare in Telangana is reckoned to be 32 percent to TRS's 26 percent.
In Seemandhra, YSR Congress is on a high with 45 percent of the respondents willing to vote for it, followed closely by the Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party with 39 percent. The Congress languishes at 12 percent as per the survey. The sample size for Seemandhra in January was 787 while it was 763 in February.
From the last minute hurry that the Congress top brass in New Delhi showed to pitch for the creation of Telangana, it was obvious that it was ready to bulldoze even Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy, who was against the bifurcation of the state. The sit-in drama that Reddy let loose in the National Capital to protest the bifurcation earned him support from 35 percent in February, a 10 percent leap from last month. In fact, 37 percent of the sample in Seemandhra blamed the highest Congress leadership for the bifurcatuion while 21 percent considered the TRS to be behind it. The UPA government at the Centre was blamed by 18 percent.
There is no doubt that lack of political farsightedness and acute indecisiveness robbed Congress of an opportunity to scoop the largest bite of the Telangana pie. Now there is a fear that it might make a negative impact on the Congress voteshare in the region. Among the respondents in Telangana, 55 percent agreed that Congress left the decision on bifurcation till it was too late and that it should have happened earlier. The only respite for Congress is that 40 percent of the Telangana respondents in February appreciated the Congress government in Andhra Pradesh, a big jump from 30 percent in January. The level of dissatisfaction also fell from 56 percent in January to 44 percent in February. Adding some more comfort to the Congress, 46 percent in February from Telangana complimented the party for deft handling of the issue.
But those in Seemadhra have a completely opposite story to narrate. Congress fortunes in Seemandhra are going down the tube and it is unlikely that the party will be able to revive itself soon. The party leadership in the region is in complete disarray with chief minister Reddy resigning both from the post and the party. Other senior leaders like Lagadapati Rajagopal also left the party. The anger with the Congress in Seemandhra is apparent with 56 percent of the respondents of the region expressing dissatisfaction with the state government. However, the Centre has now imposed President's Rule in the state. Unlike their Telangana counterparts, 63 percent of the sample in February lashed out at the Congress for mishandling the Telangana turmoil. Although the number has come down from a staggerring 79 percent in January, this will provide very little solace to the national party.
Telangana always wanted a separate state for itself with 96 percent of the sample there supporting the creation of the new state. As expected, Seemandhra opposed it with 77 percent voting against the bifurcation. Congress did manage to divide a linguistic state, fulfilling the aspirations of a section probably at the cost of the other, but it remains to be seen how it will shape the political history of the party in near future.
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