As the battlelines get drawn, it is clear that in Varanasi, and even nationally, it is Narendra Modi versus the rest. Having built Modi up as the clear frontrunner, the BJP now has no option but to take on all comers and win. The combat is fraught with risk for both Modi and his party because - unusually for such a contest - the challenger has been labelled as the champion even before the match, and the reigning champions – both national and regional – have been called weak challengers.
But no one can change this labelling at this hour, and so the BJP has to prepare itself to fight on all fronts.
Nothing exemplifies the high stakes game now underway more than the forthcoming battle for Varanasi. While BJP cadres may be sure of their man's chances of victory, the reality is that they may be getting a trifle overconfident. History tells us that David beat Goliath and the reason is not luck. David, as Malcolm Gladwell explains so eloquently in his book David and Goliath, always had the edge in this battle because he played to his strengths while Goliath never got play to his.
David was an expert with the slingshot, which is extraordinarily effective from a distance, while Goliath - given his size and heavy armour - needed to get close to his enemy to crush him. David never gave Goliath this chance by hitting bullseye with his sling. If Goliath has to win, he must acknowledge David's strengths and change the field of battle to one where he has the advantage.
Narendra Modi. AFP.
Can Varanasi's David(s) versus Goliath battle have a different ending?
For starters, the most sensible thing for all combatants to assume is that the battle will not be over till it is over. For Modi's detractors, their best bet is not to fight different battles, but field a joint candidate. But given party egos, one can't be sure of this. One certainly does not see Arvind Kejriwal agreeing to this, unless everybody agrees to his candidature. He sees himself as a man of destiny, and his non-BJP rivals in Varanasi may not have the motivation to make him a super-hero at their cost.
As for Modi, if he has to win, he has to change his tactics. He is likely to face not one, but several Davids, each an expert in his own way.
He will face two traditional rivals - Mukhtar Ansari, a local thug with a Muslim voter base, and possibly Ajai Rai, a former BJP politician now with the Congress, with strong muscle-power and a base among Bhumihar-Brahmin voters. Modi has to, at the very least, seize Rai's voters, assuming the Congress will not field someone else like Digvijaya Singh against him. Digvijaya Singh is like a senior version of Kejriwal – able to hog media time with outrageous statements.
Then there is the third, non-traditional David - Kejriwal. This is the enemy Modi cannot afford to underestimate, not because he has much to offer the voters of Varanasi, but because he is a formidable opponent, a master of mobilisation and media tactics. Sheila Dikshit made the mistake of underestimating him in Delhi – but one can understand that, for one didn't know his potential then – and lost. Modi cannot afford to do the same. He needs two plans – one to take on the traditional Davids, and another for the non-traditional one.
Modi's main strengths would normally be enough to take on Ansari and Rai, for he has two high cards in his arsenal: Voters know that if they elect him, they have a potential Prime Minister on their hands. For Varanasi, which has never felt it got its due from national politicians, this is a strong enough incentive to vote for him.
The other high card is what Modi represents: a man with a development agenda. As PM, he can promise a new economic thrust to make Varanasi India's most important tourist destination, complete with new infrastructure and investments. This will benefit all communities and voters know that as PM he could well deliver.
But these high cards won't be good enough against the expected negative propaganda of Arvind Kejriwal, who, according to news reports, plans to stay in Varanasi for a month before the elections and will take the battle to every street.
Kejriwal has some cards to play – mostly negative ones. The first card is a committed volunteer cadre with a strong incentive to muck-rake against Modi. Kejriwal has made it clear he is in the race to defeat Modi, and not to contest the elections.
The second is the media will be following him everywhere. So noise levels – negative stories about Gujarat, Modi's alleged links with big business, etc – will be high. This may not matter to the Varanasi voter, but the purpose of doing this is to get Modi's supporters to make a mistake. If they lash out in anger, Kejriwal will play victim. If they don't, Kejriwal will continue the taunts till they do. Modi's backers have to hold their fire – or fight fire with fire differently.
The advantage Kejriwal has over Modi is that he has no record to defend. He can be in attack mode all the time. Modi has a history to defend. The pressure will be on him, both as Goliath-designate and as the target, to deal with this.
Can there be any counters?
One option is to fight the battle at two levels. At Modi's level, he can ignore the Davids and focus on his big message as development messiah and behave like a future prime minister. Staying calm and in control will work for him. At another level, it would make sense for some lower level leaders in the party to take on Kejriwal on his turf – by repeatedly attacking his 49-day record in Delhi, bringing out his constantly shifting stands on various issues, the shenanigans of his close associates, etc. They have to build a dossier on AAP and Kejriwal and consistently drum this into the voters' heads so that Modi can stay above the battle and Kejriwal will have to defend himself.
You can't take on a guerilla force with the main army. You have to send irregulars after it.
The guerilla has the advantage of choosing his time and place of attack. A defensive strategy against guerillas will not lead to victory. You need to defend at the top and be in attack mode elsewhere. KPS Gill sent the Khalistani terrorists packing, not the Indian army. Andhra Pradesh's Greyhounds sent the Naxals packing, not the army. In Jammu & Kashmir, this is why the army is still not winning the war against the irregulars that Pakistan-based outfits sends here to create mayhem.
Nobody knows what the outcome of the battle between David(s) and Goliath will be in Varanasi. Perhaps it is just as well that Modi has chosen a back-up seat in Vadodara. But his partisans need to learn the lesson from David versus Goliath. They should not choose to play on David's turf.
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