As the campaign for the 2014 Lok Sabha polls gathers momentum, the Aam Aadmi Party is dreaming big in Gujarat, the home state of BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. The one year old political party, which has barged onto the national political scene with a unthinkable result in the Delhi assembly election, is campaigning hard in Gujarat on their core issues like corruption and development.
"The belt from Gujarat to Odisha has witnessed a steady decline of a strong second party as Congress is gradually losing its popular support. Our aim is to fill the void and emerge as the second largest party in these BJP or NDA ally states," Yogendra Yadav told Firstpost. In Gujarat and other states like Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh or Odisha governed by popular NDA Chief Ministers, AAP does not plan to challenge the ruling party.
"We are not even bothered to eye the BJP strongholds. But it's the Congress seats that will be our target," says one AAP insider who did not want to be named.
Arvind Kejriwal with Kumar Viswas. Agencies.
Given the current state of Gujarat politics, experts say AAP has a great opportunity to establish itself, especially in rural belts of South Gujarat or tribal-dominated districts like Narmada.
"It's really tough for AAP to make a dent into BJP's vote share in the urban areas. In the last assembly election BJP had a margin of around 13 lakh votes in the urban centers, whereas in the rural belt the margin was around 2 to 3 lakh," points out a senior political journalist with a Gujarati daily.
The Journalist's observation is echoed by state Congress leaders. "In the urban areas it's been very hard to get a foothold when contesting the BJP. Narendra Modi's popularity in urban centers is unmatchable. But rural districts like Varooch or Narmada have noted for Congress," says a Gujarat Congress leader. "Congress is losing out in the rural areas fast. [Sabarkantha MP and member of Rahul Gandhi led election coordination committee] Madhusudan Mistry getting a Rajya Sabha ticket signifies how weak his chance of winning in the next Lok Sabha election is," he told Firstpost on condition of anonymity.
Congress has lost local support primarily due to the apathy of its MPs who have undertaken little development work. "Look at (Congress MP) Tushar Chaudhary. Despite being the minister of state for tribal welfare, he has done precious little even within his own constituency," says Father Xavier Manjuran, a tribal rights activist. Most observers predict that Chaudhary is highly likely to lose his Bardoli seat. And each such loss represents a potential gain for AAP.
"We are campaigning against the corrupt politicians, who despite holding seats in the Parliament and assembly have failed to bring any development in these places. As a result Gujarat has the highest number of children deaths and poverty related deaths," says local AAP leader Jayendra Rana. "Land grabbing is another issue that we want to take up as the farmers are distressed with land-grabbing for industrialisation."
But capitalising on Congress' weaknesses will require a sharper focus on development, as opposed to AAP's traditional anti-corruption plank. "Congress has done nothing as the chief opposition party in Gujarat so the anti-BJP votes are ready for AAP to take, but people might not agree with the AAP ideology of anti corruption as they are more vulnerable to issues like poverty, land rights and forest rights," says Father Xavier, who has been working among the tribals of Gujarat for last few decades.
The other issue is visibility. In the rural belt, locals often complain that AAP is not trying to reach out to them at all. "They are just following the footsteps of Congress and cannot be seen on the ground," says Lakshman Bhai, a land rights activist from Rajapeepla.
But for now, the entry of the Aam Aadmi Party has definitely made the BJP sit up and take notice.
"Gujarat has always seen the emergence of new parties. Be it a faction by Shankar Singh Waghela or Gujarat Parivartan Party of Keshubhai Patel. But AAPs political history and their result in Delhi will definitely set them apart from these parties who suddenly emerged in the past and then got lost or merged into other national parties," a BJP insider in Gujarat says.
"Congress is definitely on a constant downward motion now and the biggest problem is the infighting in the party, so AAP might end up clinching some congress votes, " says J Vyas, a state leader of BJP. Even though Vyas claims that his party is not worried about the emergence of AAP, he says," we are definitely keeping an eye on it. Though it will be premature to device a strategy against AAP as the election is still some time away."
Vyas, however, is confident of BJP's position in the urban areas. "Their performance in last one month and the negative publicity for the behaviour of their ministers will create a negative impact among the voters in urban Gujarat." He says. "Industrious people in Gujarat are politically very aware and they will not give a chance to a party whose CM sits on protest neglecting the office and administration."
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