The result of the Modi vs Arvind Kejriwal contest would be known only after four months. But politics is not only about electoral victories. There are several other measures of a leader's popularity and a party's performance before votes are cast. Who has captured the popular imagination? Who is setting the agenda of public debates? Who is dominating media headlines? Whose supporters are increasing? Who is gaining the respect of opponents and rivals, even if grudgingly? And, finally, who is making the other jittery?
Measured on these parameters, Kejriwal is ahead of Modi. Within a fortnight of becoming the Delhi chief minister, Kejriwal has become Modi's rival, the alternate symbol of hope and change, media's darling, an inspiration for the BJP and a headache for the saffron parivar.
Here is how and why:
BJP imitating AAP: From Delhi to Goa, from Bhopal to Jaipur, every BJP chief minister is today talking like a Kejriwal clone. Modi is no longer their role model. Had there been an award for the biggest Kejriwal fan, Vasundhara Raje would have won it easily. Such has been the impact of Kejriwal's philosophy on Raje that she has turned her government into a replica of AAP's Delhi.
Arvind Kejriwal. AFP.
Raje's entourage stops at red lights, has fewer vehicles and lesser security. She travels by her own vehicle—something less humble than a WagonR—and intends to use the state government aircraft only in an emergency. Raje holds janata darbars—not on the road but at her residence --- and expects her ministers to do the same at the party headquarter.
In addition, Raje has decided not to shift to the CM's official residence across the road. But her love for 13, Civil Lines — her current government bungalow in Jaipur's poshest area --- is suspected to be the result of her superstitious belief in numerology, not AAP-inspired public morality.
In MP, Shivraj Singh reversed within 48 hours his earlier decision to allow sale of IMFL through desi-liquor shops. This followed his neighbor Raman Singh's extraordinary haste in launching a 4-digit corruption helpline a few days after Kejriwal aired the idea and Manohar Parikar's suggestion for learning from the AAP and removing all 'bad eggs." And on Friday, the Delhi BJP breached the final identity barrier when its cadres wear an AAP-style topi at a party function.
BJP supporters will protest their leaders are inspired by their own thoughts and conscience. But the timing and tone are clear signals the BJP leaders want to surreptitiously implement the AAP ideas and follow some of its ideals. In contrast, is anybody in the AAP talking of aping the BJP? Kejriwal Bachchan, Modi Khanna: Kejriwal's has done to Modi what Amitabh Bachchan did to Rajesh Khanna.
Only a few weeks ago, Modi was everywhere. His speeches were being telecast live, his jokes were making newspaper headlines, his every word was being dissected from a million angles and a billion meanings were being attributed to his every gesture. But, Kejriwal has replaced him as the superstar of the small screen and the media. Disgusted Modi fans are blaming the media for ditching their hero and turning Kejriwal into a media behemoth.
Fact is, Modi has nothing new to say now. He has become repetitive, predictable and boring. All his gestures and words have been analyzed and telecast so much that even Modibhakts switch to a Kejriwal presser everytime Modi speaks. Once in a while when he does come up with a fresh idea, like his recent support to Ramdev's proposal for tax reforms, Modi sounds unconvincing and gets ripped apart by experts.
Kejriwal, on the other hand, is keeping the debate hot with his clever strategy of throwing up new ideas regularly. People may or may vote for Kejriwal, but they are definitely more interested in him than in Modi, a trend the media is reflecting. Modibhakts confused, AAP enthused: Long queues outside the AAP offices and the response to its membership drive indicate the number of Kejriwal supporters is growing. Everywhere people are eager to join the AAP movement. Survey results and media reports, on the other hand, suggest that support for the BJP and the Congress is decreasing.
Don't blame Kejriwal for the decline in the BJP's popularity. Some of the unfaithful Modibhakts were meant to run away from his camp. Seeds of disintegration were inbuilt. The Modi Parivar was an opportunistic alliance between people with different opinions, ideologies and expectations. The core BJP supporter dreamt of a lauh purush with pre-defined views on Kashmir, Pakistan, China and 'sickularism.' For the neophyte in the Modi camp, bijli, paani, employment, development and corruption were the main electoral issues; the rest just meaningless slogans.
For a long time the twain coexisted, making the BJP believe that its supporters were a happy, homogenous unit. But now that the AAP has emerged as an alternative with a clearly-defined stand on many of these issues, some of the new recruits have started leaving Modi's dugout.
Is the BJP, in contrast, attracting AAP renegades?
Sangh jittery, lunatic fringe edgy: For most part of 2013, Modi seemed firmly in control of the BJP and its 2014 campaign. His rivals had shut up, the Sangh had taken its hands off the remote control and the lunatic fringe was behaving. But the AAP's rise is threatening to disrupt the sang froid in the saffron parivar.
On Friday, reports indicated that the RSS was worried about the AAP's rise across India and had warned the BJP against underestimating the new threat. The Sangh's worry can't be dismissed as its cadres are spread across the BJP bastions and have their ears to the ground. Modi will soon have to pacify Nagpur and calm their nerves to retain his independence.
The lunatic fringe is also getting restive. The recent attack on the AAP office in Ghaziabad, the eagerness to turn Kashmir into an electoral issue and the 'let's slap them' lingo adopted by BJP symapthisers like the Shiv Sena, reveal the Hindutva core is getting frustrated and is itching trying to take matters in its hands.
All this shows that Yogendra Yadav is right. For the past few weeks, Yadav has been lamenting the timing of Lok Sabha elections. His constant refrain has been the wish for some more time. Had the elections been held in 2015, the result could have favoured the AAP.
Modi may still go on to win 2014. But that's just because he has time by his side.
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