Friday, January 17, 2014

The Vinod Binny complication: How badly will it affect AAP?

The AAP-Vinod Kumar Binny rift is now officially now in the open. The rebel MLA from Laxmi Nagar in East Delhi held a press conference earlier today accusing Arvind Kejriwal of running the party like an autocrat and of going back on his promises to the people.

The most serious charge that he levelled was that Kejriwal was close to Congress MP Sandeep Dikshit and is working closely with the party that is supposed to be an arch rival.

The first sign of impending trouble emerged when when the AAP cabinet was to be decided. Binny's name as a possible minister was doing the rounds but he eventually didn't make the list. It was reported at the time that Binny was unhappy with the party's decision. Kejriwal however dismissed reports of any tensions.

However, Binny negated that with his statements today.

Binny during his dramatic press conference today. PTI

Binny during his dramatic press conference today. PTI

"Kejriwal doesn't like it if someone disagrees with him in meetings. He gets very angry if you don't agree with him. Even he himself has admitted that he has a temper problem," Binny, a former MCD councillor, said.

"Sources have told me that Kejriwal is close to the Sandeep Dikshit. Why is Kejriwal not taking any action against Sheila Dikshit?" he said.

When asked about proof that Kejriwal was close to Dikshit, Binny said that this was information he had received from sources and that if he had the proof he would have shown it to the press.

Binny also alleged that AAP's process to pick candidates for the Lok Sabha elections is a farce and that the candidates were already fixed.

"It has already been decided where Kumar Vishwas, Dilip Pandey, Shazia Ilmi, etc will fight from. All this asking for forms and 1000 signatures is drama," he said.

Binny said he wouldn't resign from the party. He also alleged that the party runs from top by a few key leaders such as Manish Sisodia, Arvind Kejriwal and Sanjay Singh.

The party has already responded strongly to Binny's allegations with senior leader Yogendra Yadav saying that the MLA will face strong disciplinary action.

"There is a place for differences, dissent and disagreement in our party. But there is no place for indiscipline. Nobody has the right to make such indisciplined display of dissent," he said.

Yadav pointed out that in the two weeks that they have been in the government they have kept their promise of free water, lower power rates, CAG audit of power distribution firms and an anti-corruption helpline.

"Strangely, his address seemed like a speech written by someone else. You would remember, Binny's speech was uncannily similar to what BJP MLA Harsh Vardhan had to say about AAP in his Delhi Assembly address. I wonder why he sounded exactly like him," he said.

But could Binny's rebellion prove to be detrimental to AAP and Arvind Kejriwal's image ahead of the national elections? Not everyone is convinced, despite the media attention that Binny has managed to garner.

Manisha Priyam, who is a political analyst and an Indian Council of Social Science Research (ICSSR) fellow, feels that Binny's outburst is unlikely to have any impact.

"Binny was never clearly the face of the party. If it was some other important leader like Manish Sisodia, Kumar Vishwas or even Yogendra Yadav who had raised these issues and made such a remark, it would have mattered. Binny may have been part of the original team, but he was clearly not the media face," Priyam said.

Sanjay Kumar, Professor at CSDS feels that the Binny's impact will be minimal and is unlikely to affect the party's electoral prospects.

"The Binny episode is unlikely to have an impact nationally for AAP. His influence is limited to his area and locality. Of course people will also understand that this kind of dissent does happen in political parties as well," Kumar said.

"Even in terms of numbers, it is just one MLA. If it was say two-thirds of the MLA's, then yes it would have been important. But out of 28 MLAs, one dissenting is hardly going to make a difference," Priyam said.

According to Pradip Kumar Dutta, Professor of Political Science at Delhi University, credibility is still a big issue for Binny.

"Binny did retract his statement last time. He doesn't have credibility at all. This appears to be a recurring behavioural pattern," Dutta said.

So is the Congress working with the AAP? Dutta doesn't agree.

"In the instance of FDI in retail, you can see the difference between the AAP vision and Congress vision. In fact, some of the trader lobby in the BJP might be more on Kejriwal's side with his decision. Look at Khurshid's comments on Kejriwal and AAP," he said.

Kumar pointed out that in case allegations that the Lok Sabha candidates are already fixed do turn out to be true, then it could be worrisome for AAP.

"If say it is proved that the seats and nominations were fixed, it could affect party morale for the volunteers. If more people come out and make the same charges, then it might appear that AAP too works like the BJP and Congress," he said.

As far as Kejriwal is concerned, Priyam also feels that the break-up with Binny is unlikely to affect his image in any negative way.

"Look at the history of this party. Kejriwal has fallen out with some big names in the past and survived. Anna Hazare, Kiran Bedi are two such important people. Arvind has a certain resilience and tenacity that he will go on despite these fallouts," she said.


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