Deve Gowda may be the self-proclaimed choreographer of the proposed Third Front but he was denied the privilege of telling the world, because Nitish Kumar stole the thunder from him by announcing the re-birth of the political grouping. The Bihar Chief Minister first made the announcement in an interview to the Economic Times and then by talking to various media organisations.
The three parties named so far in this 'Janata Parivar returns' Front are those which are supporting the Congress's UPA-II from outside. The Samajwadi Party and Janata Dal (S) which are formally supporting it and the JD(U) which is doing it tacitly. The Congress, which has 4 MLAs in Bihar, "unconditionally" supports Nitish's government.
But all these negotiations and talks are for not for a pre-poll alliance. It is all for a planned post-poll alliance should each of the constituent parties catch the fancy of the voters with the idea of "federate" structure and and if the people turn away both the BJP and Congress, giving Modi less than 160 seats.
Gowda has magnanimously said that he is not interested in becoming Prime Minister again. Nitish also has repeatedly denied ambitions to become a Prime Minister. Both Nitish and Gowda have said their new front was an attempt to revive the Janata Parivar concept. The Janata Parivar in this case means the Janata Dal, and not the Janata Party of old. The erstwhile Janata Dal had Lalu Pradav Yadav's RJD, Ramvilas Paswan's LJP and Navin Patnaik's BJD. Both Gowda and Nitish said talks with Left front parties were in progress and they could hypothetically be considered on board with the alliance.
Nitish Kumar's planned third front may not be as successful as hoped. PTI
The third front seems formed, at least in principle. But the irony is that the electoral fortunes of none of the three protagonists, Janata Dal (U) in Bihar, Samajwadi Party in UP and JD(S) in Karnataka is on the rise. By forming a Third Front, they now have some talking points to try and convince their social constituents that they are here for serious business. They are contesting to run the country, or play the king maker when the need arises to "protect secularism" and "prevent communal forces" (read Modi) from coming to power.
The front is trying to rope in BJD and Nitish said major announcements would be made in 15-day time. BJD has over the years remained sceptical and dismissive of any such idea and has continued to maintain its distinct non-polar identity. AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa's name was also dropped to make it sound like a broad based front, so what if she has never even stood in a photo with the Janata Parivar revivalist leaders. Nitish, Gowda and the Samajwadi Party are not talking about who is or will be the leader of their front. Being the most contentious issue, it's prudent on the part of the leaders to not discuss the issue now in case it kills the idea even before it is born.
The Third Front can't be a pre-poll alliance for a variety of reasons, the most important being that no party benefits from the alliance. It isn't clear how seat sharing talks are possible without recognising one of them as being the party leading the alliance. How will the JD(S) of Karnataka benefit the JD(U) in Bihar or Mulayam's SP in UP? Only the Left parties can be accommodated, but they won't return the favour in states like Bengal, Tripura and Kerala.
The "non-Congress, non-BJP" front claims made by Nitish, Gowda, or Samajwadi Party leaders is meaningless and misleading. No Third Front government is ever possible without either the BJP or the Congress supporting it. Since all these parties that propose to come together for now are secularists and are supporting the Congress from outside, the BJP supporting the alliance in May 2014 is ruled out. This hypothetically leaves the Congress to support them if Modi's eventual numbers are far below than what the various opinion polls are projecting.
The only purpose the talks of a third front serves for now is to spice the run up to the polls and give the media some constant fodder, or act as breather from the otherwise Modi versus Rahul angled coverage. The results of the 2009 elections stand testimony to the fact that with the singular exception of the BJD, all other regional parties which were not aligned either with the Congress or with the BJP took a severe beating. This includes both the Left Front and Samajwadi Party. The JD(U) got good numbers in Bihar but it was at the time a prominent ally of the BJP.
The Congress is watching worrying signs beyond the potential third front. Deserted by allies, the Congress- led UPA-II slipped into a minority a long time ago and even two of the remaining three allies, Nationalist Congress Party and the National Conference are maintaining the suspense. They now have doubts whether they should settle for a pre-poll alliance with a party they have partnered for five years while it was in power at the centre.
After the Muzaffarnagar riots in Uttar Pradesh, the political weight of the third partner Congress partner in UPA, Rashtriya Lok Dal has become inconsequential for the upcoming elections. Ajit Singh is faced with an existential crisis, with his own Jat community switching over to the BJP and the Muslim community which was earlier supportive, becoming deeply suspicious of him.
The NCP has been keeping the Congress on tenterhooks. Party leader and union minister Praful Patel first raised questions over Rahul Gandhi's interview and his statements on Friday were critical of Congress, almost putting it on notice.
"We are losing patience because the Congress was delaying alliance talks…The impression from Delhi is different from what leaders say in Maharashtra. Leaders in Maharashtra have been given contrary signals. We need clarity. Options for all political parties are open," Patel said.
Patel's remarks acquire significance in light of NCP chief and agriculture minister, Sharad Pawar's, earlier expressing doubt over Rahul's ability to lead the country. The NCP has been at the loggerheads with the Congress over several issues but has so far not left.
Though the Congress has eked a temporary truce with the National Conference by agreeing to the creation of hundreds of financially expensive new administrative units in J&, but the trust deficit continues to be still there.
Political allies have played a prominent role in the Congress's victory in 2004 and 2009. The party had powerful regional allies in both the elections. However, this year is different for the Congress. Its two big allies, Trinamool Congress and DMK are gone, even smaller ones like the PMK, TRS, IUML and JVM have also jumped ship.
After running a coalition government for two consecutive terms for the last 10 years, the Congress should ideally have claimed it as a major achievement and it should have been an attractive proposition for new alliance partners. But just over two months ahead the parliamentary elections, it faces very grim prospects. Other than Lalu Prasad Yadav in Bihar, whom Rahul Gandhi called an "idea", no other leader or party is looking with favour at the Congress.
In politics, like in any other deal an alliance partner is attracted to the bigger party only if the two are ideologically bound or if the bigger party (Congress or the BJP) has the ability to catch or transfer votes to it. The perception that Congress is not fighting the 2014 elections to win but to somehow contain Modi's rising numbers and limit its own downslide to a respectable three digit figure has perhaps hit home with existing and potential allies.
The Congress high command belatedly decided to remove inefficient Uttrakhand chief minister Vijay Bahuguna, but the Telangana tangle has exposed the Congress leadership's vulnerability. The Andhra Pradesh state unit, including chief minister Kiran Kumar Reddy, has the courage to openly defy the central leadership.
Talks of the third front by Nitish, Gowda and Mulayam suits the Congress for now, but Rahul Gandhi has his task cut out for him.
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