Kejriwal’s real Varanasi strategy: Oppose Modi, defeat Congress

By Jai Mrug

As the media followed the ink attack on Kejriwal in Varanasi, it again looked like a fight between David and Goliath. Even by the most optimistic estimates David might not win this battle. So why the contest ? Why should Kerjriwal spend his time in a contest in Varanasi when he has so much to be gained by campaigning across the country and the AAP seems challenged in its home base of Delhi. Often you have to lose a battle to win the war, and that is exactly what Kejriwal is doing. So the battle is for Varanasi , the war is not.

Flashback to November 2013 - the battle between Sheila Dikshit and Arving Kejriwal. By positioning himself as an opponent "itching for a combat" with Sheila Dikshit, he eventually positioned himself as the other pillar of Delhi politics, giving the BJP a run for its money. So what does Kejriwal seek to obtain out of the battle in Varanasi ? Does he hope to displace the BJP completely now? Not quite. The actual competition is to occupy the space that the Congress is soon vacating. In 2014 the Congress is expected to sink to a historically low tally. The shrinking footprint of the Congress may soon incapacitate it from emerging even as a strong regional alternative to the BJP. So for an opponent of the Congress the key lies in how he accelerates this decline or positions himself to make the most of a historic meltdown. It can be done by taking away some of the most committed voters of the party, that can push the party in a state of terminal decline. In this case the most committed voters of the Congress have been minorities, and Kejriwal needs to signal to them. The battle is not therefore to give Modi a fight but to ensure that the most entrenched Congress voter knows he is the next best suitor for them.

And so does that mean, Kejriwal has nothing to gain in this election from this contest? Quite the opposite. The anti- Modi qualifier has quite the possibility of pushing many minorities into the arms of the AAP, and a sizeable movement on the ground already seems to have started. In UP, the AAP has worked hard to wean away minority voters. To cite a couple of examples it has fielded a MPLB (Muslim Personal Law board) member, Maulana Kalbe Rushaid, from Amroha, a veteran leader, Mahmood Husain Rehmani, an eye surgeon from Kanpur, and a veteran contestant (Dabre Alam) from Padrauna. Not to mention of Shazia Ilmi from Ghaziabad. A groundswell of minority support across these and other seats could produce a windfall for the AAP and that is what Kejriwal seeks. Arvind Kejriwal is not fighting a battle to win Varanasi, but to ensure this windfall , not just in Uttar Pradesh but outside too. Apart from this election, such gains will help accelerate the movement of other social blocs towards the AAP post election.

Arvind Kejriwal during his visit to Varansi. PTI

Reports from the ground now suggest a movement of minorities towards the AAP in cities like Mumbai and smaller towns like Jaipur, a movement through which the AAP can ensure long term and sustainable damage to the Congress. In Mumbai North-East, Medha Patkar has quite made the fight triangular by weaning away minorities from the Congress support base. Mumbai South, from where Meera Sanyal is testing the waters, has two assembly segments that are minority dominant. Minorities in this seat could be a game changer as much as they could be in Mumbai North-West where Mayank Gandhi of AAP is trying his luck.

The AAP ideologically can seek to displace only the Congress and occupy the space that is being vacated by the Left and Left of Centre forces. Its techniques of fasting and non-violence are the very same techniques that were deployed by Mahatma Gandhi to harness the anti- establishment sentiment. However coincidental it may sound, Kejriwal is a practitioner of Vippasana, that has its roots in Buddhism. The Theosophical Society, the ideological predecessor of the Congress, was seen as a quasi Buddhist movement in the 19th Century, preaching tenets of universal brotherhood like Buddhism. It is therefore in some way not a surprise that the two seek to occupy the same constituency. As the Congress vacates the Left of Centre space , the AAP seeks to quickly occupy the same.

What is unique about the Aam Admi Party is that it is seeking to dismember the Congress base by poaching on one of its most fundamental constituents – the minorities, something no other party with a national foot print has worked on in a way as systematic as the Aam Admi Party. Close to a quarter of the AAP candidates in UP are Muslims.

The Battle for Varanasi is thus not the fight against Modi. The subtext is the AAP readying its long term strategy to ultimately replace the Congress as the other pole in Indian politics. Strange as it may sound, it does not need to take pot shots at the Congress for the same.