Will AAP be able to repeat its fairytale story in Delhi at the Lok Sabha polls later this year?
An opinion poll conducted by CSDS for the Lokniti-IBN poll survey has revealed when it came to awareness of the party, though 54 percent of people across the country had heard of AAP, 97 percent of that number are from Delhi.
Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia at their dharna. PTI
The poll has found that if the votes were carried out now, AAP would get 4 percent of the national vote share with 48 percent vote share from the national capital. Apart from Delhi, AAP has some sizeable gain in Haryana.
Does this mean that AAP is only a NCR phenomenon?
AAP leader Yogendra Yadav during a debate on CNN-IBN said, "The figures are very encouraging. As an organisation we have a fairly limited presence in other parts of the country and we have had barely any campaign whatsoever. I have done sephology and I understand how big even 4 percent is. But this is bound to expand over the next 3 months."
Yadav was also quizzed about the party's dramatic 10-day dharna, after some policemen refused to comply with the order of its Law minister Somnath Bharti to go into a house in Khirki village and arrest its inhabitants on charges of drugs and prostitution.
Their demand is that Delhi police be brought under the control of the Delhi government. But is this dharna designed to send a message across India, or to make a point only in Delhi?
Yadav said, "It is simple. There is an absurdity written into the law which is that the government in Delhi has no power over law and order unlike any other state. This absurdity is not just recognised by AAP, but it is there in Congress and BJP manifestos as well. So we are doing what we were mandated to do."
But not everyone has is happy with AAP's actions, or its way of going about it. Some say that what the AAP is doing is nothing but anarchy.
Kumar Ketkar, editor of of daily Divya Marathi, said on CNN-IBN,"The anarchic nature of Anna, Nirbhaya movement helped AAP. So they feel anarchy is the way to power but it won't work for them. They will lose support because of their dharna."
Most panelists on the CNN-IBN panel were of the opinion that AAP was quite simply, wrong.
Swapan Dasgupta was of the opinion, "It is an NCR phenomenon. It is a campaign of old fashion class struggle politics."
Ramachandra Guha too was of the same opinion. "Poll shows that 50 percent knew of this party. Today whats happening in Delhi today will play out very badly across India. Yogendra Yadav should rethink the steps taken by his party," he said.
"They can sustain if they curb their anarchism, otherwise they will die out like a meteorite," he said.
To this Yadav said, "We will introspect. What is happening in Delhi is something very specific because of absurdities written in structure of government and that can change only through contestation. This government may have delivered more on its promises that the other governments in power. I would say style is an issue. But we also need to ask substantive questions."
Manini Chatterjee, Editor, National Affair of The Telegraph was of the opinion that AAP was getting involved in vigilantism. "It wasn't the larger question of Delhi police but an ego battle because some Delhi cops refused to barge into a house and AAP asked for them to be sacked, but the home minister has not done that. I think many in Delhi are very scared now. Will vigilantees decide who is correct?" she questioned.
Sociologist Dipankar Gupta advised AAP to take it easy. "If AAP does well in Delhi they should be happy that they are not losing ground. AAP has quite a job in its hands. They would be better advised to play things slowly and cautiously and govern Delhi as the best as they can," he said and added, "AAP may have jumped the gun here, but the way police reacted may have given a reason for AAP to react this way."
While the party may have conquered Delhi, there major competitor in the national elections is Narendra Modi. Will AAP be able to eat into the BJP vote share?
Dipankar Gupta said, "The opponents of AAP have been saying that they are good for the streets but not good for government. What they want to do is a long drawn out process, but they trying to hurry things up. This giving reason for people to think that Modi will be better."
Manini Chatterjee too was of the opinion that while some expected them to be a check for Modi, their actions may be a deterrent. "There is a feeling the only way to check votes for Modi will be Arvind Kejriwal. But what they are doing in Delhi is wrong. And modi might actually gain more votes."
Sandeep Shastri was of the opinion that in the Delhi polls a large chunk of their votes was from people who neither supported Congress nor BJP. "For a takeoff from where they are now and make a dent in politics they would need to get into the vote banks of the Congress and the BJP," he said.
"At the present moment the AAP is damaging the Congress more than the BJP," Shastri added.
Swapan Dasgupta was of the opinion, "They are likely to be a decisive factor, but as of today they would not get more than 20 seats."
However, Manini Chatterjee said, "They are a refreshing breeze right now, but they may also be a dangerous gale that will wreck systems."
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