Decoding Rahul’s big ‘idea’: In Bihar, it means getting caste equations right

By Manoj Chaurasia

Patna: It is not long ago that Rahul Gandhi denounced as 'complete nonsense' the ordinance of his own government seeking to neutralise the Supreme Court's verdict on convicted lawmakers. His theatrics forced the UPA government to withdraw the ordinance. It cost Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad his Lok Sabha membership and left him ineligible for contesting any election. Against this backdrop, the Congress vice-president's recent discovery that the RJD is a great 'idea' has left many in the political circles utterly confused.

During his recent interview with a television channel he defended his party's efforts to tie up with the RJD, claiming the alliance was with an idea, not a party or any individual. What exactly is the 'idea'?

Rahul Gandhi. PTI

Rahul may be thinking in abstract ways, but political observers here are convinced that the real reason for the Congress love for Lalu's party is grounded more in hardcore political calculations.

According to them, the combination of Congress-RJD and other such like-minded regional parties makes them a formidable alliance in a state where caste has been the deciding factor in any election. Past records reveal that whenever these parties have fought together, the main rival—here, read the BJP— have bitten the dust.

So when Rahul talked about going with an "idea", he indeed had in his mind the clear strategy not to allow any division in secular votes. It is the only way his party could stop Narendra Modi from capturing power in Delhi.

The secular alliance comprising the RJD, the Congress, the LJP and the NCP had won 29 of Bihar's 40 Lok Sabha seats in 2004. The RJD had won 22 seats of the total 26 it contested and the LJP of Ram Vilas Paswan had bagged four seats out of eight whereas the Congress ended up winning three seats out of total four seats it contested.

The result, however, was disastrous for the parties in 2009 Lok Sabha polls. The NDA won 32 seats — Nitish Kumar's JD(U) won 20 seats and the BJP 12 seats. They had decided to go it alone and ended up undercutting each other.

The RJD could win only four seats out of 28 it contested whereas its alliance partner, the LJP drew a blank although it had fielded its candidate son 12 seats. The Congress, on the other hand, put up even a more dismal performance and won only two of the 39 seats it contested alone.

Soon after the results were out, the entire media was quick to attribute the NDA's success to Nitish's agenda of "development" and "social engineering". What they failed to note was that there was a sharp division in secular votes. The Congress had decided to go it alone after being handed a poor deal in the seat-sharing arrangement. The RJD-LJP had spared only three seats for the party.
There were at least 19 seats where the Congress had finished third. Although it won only two seats, it spoiled the chance of the RJD-LJP combine putting up a good show by fielding candidates in all the seats. This is gauged from the fact that on the most of the seats where the NDA candidates emerged victorious, their victory margin remained thinner - as low as 9,000 votes.

For example, in Madhubani, the BJP candidate Hukumdeo Narayan Yadav won by a slender margin of a little over 9,000 votes as the Congress cut into 1,10,000 votes of the RJD candidate – he polled 1,52,000 votes. Similarly, in West Champaran, BJP candidate Dr Sanjay Jaiswal managed to win in a bitter contest involving filmmaker Prakash Jha (LJP) and Congress candidate Sadhu Yadav. The BJP candidate won by a margin of a little over 47,000 votes; the Congress candidate polled 70,000 votes.

Likewise, in Jhanjharpur, the JD(U) won by a margin of 72,000 votes. The Congress secured 86,000 votes here. In Araria, the BJP won by a margin of 22,000 votes. The Congress' tally here was 49,000 votes and in Muzaffarpur the JD(U) won by a margin of 47,000 votes. Here the Congress polled 1,08,000 votes.

Besides pure electoral arithmetic what appears to have prompted the Congress to tie-up with the RJD is the strong sympathy wave in favour of the latter post his conviction and imprisonment in the fodder scam. While most of the 44 accused of the case got bail from the lower court itself, Lalu's bail plea was rejected by the CBI trial court and then the Jharkhand High Court. He finally secured it from the Supreme Court. These developments have created a minor sympathy wave for him. Also, Lalu has his strong support base in the Yadav-Muslim combination which remained by his side even during his bad days.

Many observers feel development as a poll plank has been overhyped in Bihar. It is caste combinations that finally matter. The Congress sees a favourable realignment of powerful caste groups if it allies with the RJD. This probably explains best Rahul's 'idea'.