Monday, January 20, 2014

No raj, only dharna: 3 reasons why AAP is headed for political suicide

"It is difficult to prioritize what is the most nauseating part of the whole sordid drama — the action itself, the manner in which the vigilante operation was conducted, the attempt to bypass the law with a show of goondaism, or Arvind Kejriwal's decision to back the protest and demand suspension of the policemen, in effect for the temerity of standing up to the rampaging minister," writes Santosh Desai in an incisive column on what is Aam Aadmi Party's single biggest political blunder.

In one fell swoop -- or in this case, a late night raid -- Somnath Bharti has demolished, in great part, the vast reservoir of goodwill the party enjoyed and relied upon. But to do so, as Desai observes, he needed and received the assistance of first Manish Sisodia -- who held the single most politically tone deaf presser in recent memory -- and then Kejriwal who has doubled down on his minister's vigilantism, making it an excuse for a pointless and self-defeating dharna.

What we got from Arvind Kejriwal this past weekend was a very old-fashioned and familiar brand of politics: brazen denial of wrongdoing; willful twisting of facts; and refusal to accept responsibility. In his interview with Barkha Dutt, he sounded more a slick party spokesman than a real leader, smugly asserting his and his party's rightness over and over again.

Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal. Reuters.

Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal. Reuters.

This isn't Arvind Kejriwal's first mistake, but it is likely to prove the most damaging. And for three simple reasons.

One, it violates the will of his own voters.

When AAP decided to form the government, Kejriwal promised, "We will perform." And this is exactly what the people who overwhelmingly voted in favour of AAP taking power in the referendum expect his party to do.  Delhi voters are looking for a new kind of governance, not a new form of protest politics. Everyone wants their Chief Minister to work -- craft policy, institute reforms, allocate resources -- not stage fasts or sit-ins. We vote in our leaders to exercise their duly elected power, not sloganeer on the streets like some powerless outsider. To do so is disingenuous and irresponsible.

Governing by dharna is risky strategy, at best, but it is downright foolish when the "principle" involved is the fate of four policemen -- whose primary crime was to resist an out-of-control Law Minister. Not one of Delhi's many problems will be resolved by winning this battle.  Only the blindest among AAP supporters will view the current face-off with the Union government as anything other than what it is: self-indulgent egotism of the pettiest kind.

Two, mob politics is not a winning strategy.

"This is same old goondagardi bullshit. Surrounding the women, making them urinate in public. They're like any other political party," declared a senior corporate executive at a dinner to a receptive audience, most of whom had been singing praises of AAP just days ago.  A sentiment that is being echoed in drawing rooms and around water coolers across India, and by political observers like Desai, who affirms, "Far from changing the political culture, this is a naked assertion of all that is wrong with the notion of power in India. The idea that power provides a shortcut between intention and action, connecting the personal interests of the ruler with the desired outcome without regard to rules or procedures is precisely the one that the AAP is in theory fighting."

The sight of a politician leading an angry mob of party workers instantly evokes revulsion in the average Indian, more so in the capital whose residents daily endure the abuse of political power. Moreover, Somnath Bharti did not target some notorious local goonda or political thug, but four hapless women whom his brave warriors terrorised and allegedly manhandled. This isn't moral activism but moral policing of the Rama Sene kind. No Delhi voter is going to want these guys to create or lead any kind of commando force, let alone one to "protect" women.

To put it in Kejriwal's favoured aam aadmi-speak: goondagardi nahin chalegi ji, AAP ki bhi nahin.

Three, Lok Sabha voters are watching. Staging a dharna in support of such dubious shenanigans compounds the mistake of bad politics with the colossal error of misgovernance. What record will AAP point to when they go out to campaign in the coming Lok Sabha polls? A record of harassing Nigerian women, of shutting down traffic in Delhi? The new government's focus ought have been to put speedily institute new policies and reforms -- to offer some evidence that AAP can indeed govern. The bizarre and unwarranted dharna instead confirms our worst fear: that Arvind Kejriwal is more comfortable railing at power than exercising it for the public good. He cannot, in fact, perform.

"Kejriwal understands that he sold unrealistic dreams and wants to escape before he is found out," a Congress leader tells The Telegraph. Unfortunately, such expedient theories ring increasingly true. It is hard to shake the growing suspicion that AAP is substituting political theatre for the hard work of governance. Unequal to the task of fulfilling their promises, the party leadership has instead chosen the tried and tested formula of dharna politics. Get lots of media attention, make big speeches, incite arrests, and hopefully garner media sympathy. Except no one is going to arrest Delhi's Chief Minister or his fellow MLAs -- or see them as victims. The head that wears the crown doesn't get to play underdog.

Within a span of weeks, Kejriwal has moved swiftly from conviction to hubris. He seems to have already lost interest in playing Chief Minister, and is talking of running for Parliament. But thanks to the chaos on the streets of Delhi unfolding today, the chances are he will lose both: the gaddi in Delhi and the election in 2014.


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