BJP or Third front? Either way it’s advantage Jayalalithaa

With her alliance with the Left parties firmed up and 'Captain' Vijayakanth still not deigning to take cognisance of the DMK, it's advantage Jayalalithaa all the way in Tamil Nadu in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

As of now, it's a fully loaded Jaya versus a forlorn Karunanidhi.

Although Jayalalithaa had initially announced that her party would go it alone, her game-plan apparently was to ultimately accommodate the CPI and the CPM, which had also been her loyal alliance partners in 2009 and 2011. Jaya's stated rationale for not aligning with anybody initially was to contest all 40 seats (39 in Tamil Nadu and one in Pondicherry) and win the maximum, if not all. With such a prospect, Jaya said her party would play a key role in forming the next government in Delhi, while senior leaders and cadres said that they wanted her to be the next prime minister.

With her reported proximity to Narendra Modi, it was widely speculated initially that Jaya's numbers would ultimately help the Gujarat chief minister at the crux situation. Now, it's clearer that Jaya herself will be a contender if the third front emerges as an alternative. In the existing electoral scenario, her front is likely to win majority of the seats.

Larger than life: Jayalalithaa has every reason to celebrate

The factors that favour her are the ally-less dilemma that the DMK finds itself in. It very badly wants to partner the DMDK, which contested alone in 2009 and polled about 10 percent of the votes, and about eight per cent in the assembly elections when it contested in partnership with the AIADMK.

But the DMDK not only remained cold all the while, but also indicated on Sunday that it preferred to go it alone. It could be a ploy to make DMK nervous and bargain more seats to contest, but DMDK going it alone or even aligning with the BJP cannot be completely ruled out.

If the DMK ultimately doesn't get the DMDK to relent, it will be in serious trouble. Its trouble will multiply if the DMDK aligns with the BJP and if the Vanniyar dominated PMK and the Congress - both of which also are devoid of allies - contest alone. Such multi cornered fights are really bad news for the DMK although it's difficult to predict who will eat into whose votes. However too many loose cannons in the fray will certainly cause some collateral damage because in the past, the electoral space had been aligned optimally along two major fronts in the past.

The DMDK's reluctance to tie up with the DMK also raises interesting questions - does it confirm the general impression that the party is weak on strategy or is it because the DMDK is influenced by forecasts that the BJP-led NDA is likely to form the next government? Moreover, has it also been swayed by the predictions such as the Lokniti-IBN tracker poll which estimated that the BJP's voteshare will rise from two per cent to 16 percent in the coming elections? Interestingly, the same tracker poll has predicted the DMK's voteshare to fall to 18 percent from 25 percent. The Congress, which is projected to garner a voteshare of 17 per cent, too is an option for Vijayakanth.

When the odds are more or less similar, perhaps what he wants is a post-poll advantage. It's certain that the DMDK wants to take a decision that will benefit the party even if it doesn't do well in the elections. It might also want to contest maximum number of seats because that will ensure the party more votes and hence a better voteshare. A better voteshare is a good tool to negotiate with allies for the next assembly elections.

If the DMDK ultimately decides to go with the BJP, the DMK's only option is to side with the Congress; but if the DMDK goes with the Congress, it has no option but to be a loser because the BJP is unlikely to tie up with it.

So, Jayalalithaa has all the reasons to be jubilant even before the elections. There is no visible anti-incumbency factor, she has scored well on the welfare front, and all she has to face is a weakened DMK-front and possibly a multi-cornered fight. On top of that, the national left leaders of stature have now joined the Jaya-for-PM chorus of her party workers and followers.

Kickstarting a campaign with such an early headstart can generate a decisive electoral momentum, which as the elections in the past had shown, can create a crucial high and a subsequent wave.

Meanwhile, Jaya is likely to keep her post-poll options open. In the wake of the BJP making it close to the top, her numbers will make her a king maker. Either way - whether it's a BJP-led front or a third front - it's advantage Jayalalithaa. And it's highly unlikely to change.