Like a wannabe up-and-comer seeking designer labels to show he has arrived, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is seeking to refurbish its credentials by seeking established non-political brandnames as its candidates for the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.
A combination picture of Gopalkrishna Gandhi and Narendra Modi.
Newspapers in recent days have been speculating about the possibility of marquee names contesting on AAP tickets. Among them: former Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) Vinod Rai, former Chief Election Commissioner SY Quraishi, former West Bengal Governor and Mahatma Gandhi's Grandson Gopalkrishna Gandhi, former IFS bureaucrat KC Singh, and serving bureaucrat Ashok Khemka of Haryana. Other parties have approached these people too contest on their symbols. But so far, none has confirmed.
Vinod Rai, in fact, told The Economic Times that "politics is not my cup of tea", and Gopal Gandhi said while he liked the Aam Aadmi Party's ideals, he would not contest an election as their candidate against Modi. "I am not joining AAP, or standing for Parliament as that party's candidate." Quraishi told the Hindustan Times: "I know the senior AAP leadership very well but I don't have any political intentions."
However, while one can wish AAP better luck with its efforts to get marquee names to wield its broom, the chances are they will be swept clean. The question to ask and answer is: do brand names make a difference to political outcomes?
The lessons from Indian history are simple: no. If the political mood is in one direction, big names do not make a difference. It is only when there is no clear trend visible that a name may make a small difference.
Consider some examples from the past.
In 1977, when there was a huge anti-emergency wave, even Indira Gandhi got defeated by a buffoon called Raj Narain.
In 1984, when there was a tidal wave in favour of Rajiv Gandhi, even Atal Behari Vajpayee was defeated.
In 2013, when there was a groundswell against the Congress in Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal defeated Sheila Dikshit.
In the DMK wave of 1967, the Congress Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu (M Bhaktavatsalam) was trounced, and so was K Kamaraj, the legendary leader, by a mere student.
The point is, where there is a clear trend in the political mood, big names do not matter.
Now let us consider whether AAP's efforts to look for "clean" and high-profile, recognisable names will work today. The answer is probably no, for these candidates do little more than burnish AAP's own credentials.
Here are some instances from the past.
For example, if Gopalkrishna Gandhi, changes his mind, and is fielded against Narendra Modi, will his 'Grandson of Gandhi' tag be enough to even give Modi a scare?
In 1989, at the height of the anti-corruption wave against Rajiv Gandhi, the opposition fielded Rajmohan Gandhi, another Grandson of Mahatma Gandhi, against him in Amethi. The Grandson of Gandhi lost to the Grandson of Nehru.
In 2009, Mallika Sarabhai, a voluble critic of Modi and the BJP, fielded herself against LK Advani in Gandhinagar. She was backed by the Congress. She lost her deposit.
In 1991, even when the Congress had the edge after two years of messy VP Singh rule, filmstar Rajesh Khanna was fielded against Advani. Advani won – but by a small margin.
The moral is clear: if there is a strong wave, almost anybody can beat a big name. If there is a weak wave, the outcome will still favour an established politician. If there is no clear wave, even a well-known name may come a cropper.
Which begs the last question: is there any kind of wave right now in India? The largest wave is a pro-Modi wave; then there are mild breezes in favour of some regional parties and, probably, in favour of AAP in Delhi and some urban pockets.
This is hardly the situation in which marquee names will win against political giants who have the wind behind them.
AAP is wasting its time by wooing Gandhi's grandson.
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