Bhubaneswar: After having batted consistently for a 'non-Congress, non-BJP' formation at the Centre for well over a year, Biju Janata Dal (BJD) supremo Naveen Patnaik suddenly discovered on Tuesday that it is 'early days' yet to talk about support to such a front. Coming as it did on a day when nine political parties met in New Delhi to chalk out a strategy for the parliamentary elections due in weeks, this was as clear an indication as one can hope to get from the enigmatic Odisha chief minister that he is having a serious rethink on joining the third front bandwagon.
The absence of the BJD from what was expected to be an 11-party affair (the AGP, too, skipped it) was noteworthy because it had been present on each of the two occasions when the group met earlier – the first time for the anti-communal rally in the national capital on 30 October and the second time to chalk out a joint floor strategy for the ongoing Parliament session earlier this month. Though Naveen himself did not attend either of the two meetings, he did send his emissary Baijayant 'Jay' Panda on both occasions to represent the party.
Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik. Image courtesy PIB
That is why it is hard to buy CPM general secretary Prakash Karat's attempt to make light of the BJD's absence saying Naveen had informed him beforehand that he would not be able to make it to the meeting because of some 'prior engagements'. Surely, he could have asked Panda—or any other leader of the party for that matter—just as he had done previously, if he indeed had such pressing 'prior engagements'. By skipping the meet altogether, he certainly has given the jitters to the proponents of the third front.
Asked about the party's absence, senior BJD leader and Health Minister Damodar Rout muddied the waters further rather than bringing any clarity on the issue. "It depends entirely on party supremo Naveen Patnaik. If he does not instruct anyone to attend the meeting, how can somebody go on his own? It is possible that he did not ask anybody to attend," the BJD vice-president told Firstpost.
Rout's comment can be interpreted in two ways. First, he knows that the BJD supremo has not asked anyone from the party to attend the meeting this time. Second, Patnaik is keeping his cards so close to his chest about a possible alliance this time that even senior most leaders in the party have no inkling as to which way his mind is working.
Speculation about a possible rethink on the part of Naveen Patnaik is not without basis. After leading the two Left parties up the garden path about a possible seat sharing arrangement for the coming elections, the BJD suddenly announced a few days ago that it would contest 'all 21 Lok Sabha seats and 147 Assembly seats' in the state in the coming elections. This meant the BJD has decided not to allow other fringe players to ride piggyback on it, like it did in 2009, and lose a few seats which are there for the asking in the bargain. The idea, BJD insiders say, is to maximise its gains in the polls before initiating talks with other parties about possible support for government formation at the Centre.
What has brought about this change in strategy is the series of opinion polls in the last few weeks, which have suggested that support for the BJP is growing by the day – and especially the latest one by ABP News-AC Nielson that has put the NDA within striking distance of an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha. With the Damocles sword of a CBI probe into the multi-thousand crore mining and chit fund scams hanging over his head, the last thing that Naveen wants is a hostile government at the Centre.
There have been at least two recent developments that suggest that Naveen has opened some kind of a back channel communication with the saffron party, his alliance partner for 11 years before he broke off unilaterally on the eve of the last elections. First, BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, during his first rally in the state on 11 February, had pulled the punches and had indulged in what can only be termed friendly banter. Second, despite the supposed antipathy between the two estranged partners, Naveen had no qualms about accepting support of the seven BJP MLAs in the Odisha Assembly to ensure the victory of Padma Bibhushan Raghunath Mohapatra, the candidate for the fourth Rajya Sabha seat, for which his party did not have the numbers, in the 7 February election.
Nor did BJP central leadership have any hesitation in offering such support despite the stiff resistance of state unit president Kanak Vardhan Singhdeo and other senior party leaders. [If Mohapatra still lost the election to Congress candidate and IPL Chairman Ranjb Biswal, it was certainly not due to lack of support from the BJP.]
Naveen may not become part of the NDA like he did the last time. But these are definite signs that he would find a way to give what is often euphemistically described as 'tactical' or 'issue based' support to a Modi led NDA government it can muster the numbers as expected and then justify it by citing the need to keep the 'bigger evil' in the shape of Congress out .
As a BJD leader quipped, only half in jest, "If he could do business with the Congress, our arch rival in the state, for 10 years, why should there be a problem backing the BJP led government? After all, they have been our official partners for 11 years, haven't they?"
No comments:
Post a Comment