The BJP-Congress combine can gloat that they have managed to hound Arvind Kejriwal out of power. But many factors can help Kejriwal become a martyr and trigger a tsunami of support in his favour.
Kejriwal's opponents and critics will list a litany of reasons to argue that the AAP will be wiped out in the next election. But here are 10 reasons why it could gain.
Arvind Kejriwal. AFP
1. Kejriwal could benefit because nobody would have missed the cozy chemistry between the two parties in the Assembly or the Valentine-Day bromance between Lovely and Harshvardhan. This extraordinary show of complicity will help Kejriwal turn the election into an 'Us vs Them' battle.
2. Because his biggest weakness will now become his biggest strength. The harshest argument against Kejriwal so far was that he accepted the support of the Congress. But this show of unity between the Congress and the BJP would help Kejriwal use the same argument against his opponents. From #AAPCon the trending hashtag will become BJPCon.
3. Because voters will see in the defeat of his Jan Lokpal the duplicity of the BJP and the Congress. The Congress had pledged its support to the AAP's election manifesto; a strong Lokpal was part of it. The BJP had announced its support to Jan Lokpal saying it would not let Kejriwal run away on the issue. But both used subterfuge to wriggle out of their promise.
4. Because Indian voters do not understand technicalities of an Assembly or want to get drawn into the maze of its laws; they recognize and honour only the intent. They would just remember that Kejriwal wanted to bring a strong law against corruption and instead of helping him the Congress and the BJP connived to stall the bill by hiding behind nebulous arguments on procedures and processes.
5. Because supporters would realise the 'system' tried to thwart him every time he tried to fulfill a promise. When he halved their bills, they called him a threat to Delhi's financial health; when he tried to control the police, they called him an anarchist and when he tried to act against the corrupt, the BJP and the Congress called it unconstitutional.
6. Because Delhi is against both the Congress and the BJP. The support for Kejriwal in the last election had established that voters don't want either of them to form the government. They had rejected both the established parties for a newcomer. Had the BJP and the Congress allowed Kejriwal enough time, had they cooperated with him on some issues, had they been less antagonistic towards him, had they given him more time, the AAP government could have had no excuses for failing. But they pulled Kejriwal down before regaining lost ground support.
7. Because we Indians love a bechara and vote out of sympathy. In 1980, Indira got it, in 1984, Rajeev got it, in 1992, the Congress got it and later Atal Behari got our sympathy when his governments were pulled down after 13 days and 13 months. In 1991, the two had pulled down VP's Singh's government. Singh faded away because in the election that followed because of the anger against 'Hindu Hriday Samrat' Advani's incarceration (for pursuing the cause of a temple) and the empathy for the Congress after the unfortunate demise of Rajeev Gandhi. But this is 2014 and there is just one claimant to public sympathy.
8. Because the Congress will be wiped out in Delhi. In the last election, the Congress won eight seats because some of its traditional voters stayed with it. It can be safely assumed that these die-hard voters are unlikely to run to the BJP. The majority of them will now go to Kejriwal.
9. Because Kejriwal will now be out on the streets. This will help him shift the focus to the BJP and the Congress instead of being on the defensive for his failures and mistakes. His post-resignation speech revealed that he will attack both the Congress and the BJP. This will help him galvanize those who are angry with the system and wish to punish the Congress and the BJP for it.
10. Because Kejriwal is still a symbol of hope for many people who are tired with the VIP neta, the corrupt babu and the dysfunctional system. And 49 days is too short a period for hope and dreams of a revolution to die.
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