Until quite recently, outgoing Rajya Sabha MP Sabir Ali was seen as Nitish Kumar's close confidante. The JD (U) leader expelled from the party on Mondya for making comments in favour of Narendra Modi was actually the most prominent Muslim face of the JD (U) and the man whose acerbic quotes to television channels were the first indication of what position the Bihar chief minister would go on to take in the immediate aftermath of Narendra Modi's election to the position of chairman of BJP's election campaign committee.
Such was Ali's clout that he could defy JD (U) president Sharad Yadav's diktat not to speak without authorisation to the media. At JD (U)'s national council meeting last year, Nitish was see giving him an affectionate pat on the back just moments after Yadav snubbed him for speaking beyond his brief.
Narendra Modi. AFP
Ali had made himself indispensable, proving himself to be good with logistical arrangements, bringing in large crowds for Nitish's Adhikar rally at Delhi's Ramlila Maidan. He was rewarded with the position of the party's Delhi unit chief and even considered a possible kingmaker in Delhi after Assembly elections. It has been to the dismay of in-house rivals that he enjoyed a meteoric rise in the party, growing to be their de-facto spokesman, presenting the party's views on television channels, blasting Narendra Modi and the BJP day in and day out. Ali had also grown in affluence during his formative years in Mumbai where he had shifted from a nondescript village in Raxaul, Bihar. Needless to say, there have been contradicting versions within the JD (U) regarding the connection between his affluence and his good fortune in politics.
After the Delhi Assembly elections, however, things changed. Nitish Kumar who was riding high after a hugely successful rally at the Ramlila Maidan last year realised it the hard way that the total number of votes polled by the JD (U) candidates in Delhi was only a fraction of that crowd. The party's prospects tanked, and so did Sabir Ali's personal prospects in Nitish Kumar's schemes of things.
The whispers had begun, that if Delhi's Bihari voters had so overwhelmingly rejected Nitish, then staking a claim to rule from Delhi could be futile.
Ali, like NK Singh (now in BJP) and Shivanand Tiwari (now expelled from JD-U) was denied a Rajya Sabha nomination by Nitish Kumar. He was asked to contest from Sheohar and was given a party ticket for the Lok Sabha elections. A reluctant Ali agreed, after a great deal of persuasion, but realised quickly enough after visits to his constituency that he and his party were simply not in the contest. Sheohar will see a BJP versus RJD election.
So his sudden fancy for Narendra Modi, an about turn, is not without reason, but it has interesting significance for Nitish as well as for Modi. While Nitish loses an articulate, self-made Muslim voice, Modi can showcase this as another addition to his ensemble cast along with the likes of MJ Akbar and Aizaz Ilmi, leaders who perceive him as a development icon, not as the poster boy of Hindu communalism.
Unlike Akbar and Ilmi, Ali does not engage so much in intellectual discourse but claims to be rooted in ground-level Muslim politics. Also, unlike the others, he is not an urbane face but retains a suburban rustic charm.
For Nitish, Ali is the second prominent Muslim after Parvin Amanullah, social welfare minister and wife of home secretary in his government Afzal Amanullah, who deserted him. Parvin is now the Aam Admi Party candidate from Patna Sahib against BJP's Shatrughan Sinha.
Both Parvin Amanullah and Sabir Ali were handpicked and politically pampered by Nitish Kumar. This could well be an indicator of the depletion of the JD (U) stock and Nitish Kumar's clout.
Another prominent Muslim JD (U) minister is said to be in touch with the BJP. Negotiations were in an advanced stage with the leader set to be given the Sitamarhi seat but then that seat went to Upendra Kushwaha in a seat-sharing arrangement. The leader is now rather friendly with the BJP and could make headlines at "some other opportune moment".
As on now, Sabir Ali is "expelled for life" (in the words of Sharad Yadav) from the JD (U) but he is still the party's candidate from Sheohar. The JD(U) is now hurriedly looking for another name.
Ali is now apologetic. He is blasting Nitish Kumar for having prime ministerial ambitions in a front where there are more PM hopefuls than parties. In the same vein, he is praising Modi's vision and his development model, urging community members to move on from the ghosts of the post-Godhra riots of 2002. Politics, he is showing, is about negotiating the impossible.
His words are naturally music to the ears of the BJP state unit in Delhi, as also to a section of the central leadership. He is also the most hotly debated in the JD (U) and RJD circles after Ramvilas Paswan and Ram Kripal Yadav joining Modi's bandwagon. There is a great deal of talk of him joining the BJP, any time from today. While BJP sources confirmed this to Firstpost, Ali on his part did not commit, promising to get back and talk at length later.
Ali's joining the BJP could potentially change the headlines, away from the perceived ill treatment by Modi's team to the party elders, Murli Manohar Joshi, LK Advani and Jaswant Singh included. The Congress has found an indication of Modi's rough edges and is making that a big poll issue. If Ali joins the BJP at this juncture, he could play the check dam. He has already gone ballistic against Digvijay Singh on the debate over the Har Har Modi slogan.
Bihar and UP have been BJP and the NDA's strength in 1996, 1998. When their numbers fell in UP, it was Bihar which saved the day for the BJP. The party and Modi's strategists want the two states to yet again swing the fortunes when results are counted on May 16, but much before that happens they are in urgent need for a favourable change in the headlines. Ali, despite all his baggage could provide that required breather.
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