The allegations made by an Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) MLA, Madan Lal, that he was approached by BJP leaders to break his party for a price make no sense. Unless one views them in the context of AAP's own strategy of positioning itself as the victim of a conspiracy hatched by the Big Two (BJP and Congress), thus setting the stage for an early re-election in Delhi.
AAP convener Arvind Kejriwal. PTI
On Monday, the party opened two fronts by targeting both the BJP and the Congress. Big names were mentioned from both parties, with wild allegations being made against Arun Jaitley, Harsh Vardhan and Narendra Modi, and former Delhi CM Sheila Dikshit being named for alleged wrongdoings in regularising illegal colonies.
For the BJP which is trying to win big at the centre, it makes absolutely no sense to try and break AAP at this juncture when it has the political high ground and AAP itself is doing all it can to shoot itself in the foot. For AAP to target Dikshit for regularising illegal colonies makes even less sense, for AAP is planning to do the same thing (legalise illegal colonies). It can't pretend to be holier than thou in this political game.
Then what is AAP really up to?
To understand what AAP is trying to do, one has to understand its predicament and its assessment of evolving political trends. It has apparently been rattled by recent opinion polls that do not give it much of a chance outside Delhi, while in Delhi itself its fortunes may be dwindling in some segments of the voter base which brought it to power. It has lost public image with segments of the middle and upper middle class. After Arvind Kejriwal's disastrous dharna in support of suspending four cops and Delhi Law Minister Somnath Bharti's much-criticised vigilantism where the victims were African women, the upper sections of Delhi's middle classes are not amused.
This has forced Kejriwal & Co to focus sharply on the larger voter constituency of the emerging middle classes – which includes everyone from jhuggi dwellers to auto rickshaw drivers, who are not status-quoist. But even this constituency is not going to stay with AAP if there is no delivery or results. The free water and cheap power schemes are not that important for this constituency.
The problem for Kejriwal is that he can't deliver results with 27 MLAs (one has been expelled from his initial 28) and with fickle Congress support. This makes it important for AAP to precipitate an election in May along with the Lok Sabha polls in the hope that it will get a majority on its own.
If we understand this perspective, all of AAP's contortions make sense. AAP's actions are intended to achieve the following:
First, it wants to position itself as the only honest party in a sea of crooked ones, and especially Congress and BJP. This involves making wild allegations against both and hoping that Congress will pull support and help AAP achieve martyrdom. It is also intended to provoke the BJP so that it acts like a big bully and make AAP appear like a poor victim. This is the real purpose of Monday's press conference by Madan Lal, et al, that took on both BJP and Congress.
Second, AAP wants to stay in the limelight so that its lower middle class constituency is told repeatedly that it is fighting powerful forces despite meagre resources. This explains why AAP keeps targeting the media for unfavourable coverage. This plays well with the underprivileged who anyway have little love lost for the media. This is disingenuous, for the media has been as tough on BJP and Congress or AAP – but in the short-term this allegation of media bias forces the latter to give AAP extra attention to prove it is not biased. This is sound psychology on AAP's part.
Third, AAP knows it has mounted the tiger of expectations and unmounting it can be fatal. This is why focusing on delivering governance in Delhi is not a priority. It wants to encash its goodwill outside Delhi before it diminishes in the face of actual performance reality in Delhi. AAP knows that parties which rise suddenly can collapse suddenly too – hence the hurry to cash in. Goodwill cheques cannot be long-term validity.
Fourth, AAP knows that the two ends of the middle class are falling apart because Narendra Modi offers the lure of stability and growth to the upper end of this spectrum. The initial attraction of AAP to the upper classes is fading, as is evident from falling donations to AAP after the Delhi dharna of Kejriwal, but the attraction is not entirely gone. Hence it has to do two things quickly: bring in more known and clean faces to shore up its own image, and also precipitate an election fast, so that the people it is trying to attract will give it the benefit of doubt.
A Hindustan Times story today says AAP is trying to rope in former CAG Vinod Rai, and former Election Commission Chief SY Quraishi, but so far with little success. Both names would be a coup, but AAP knows that its hold on the intelligentsia is slipping. A few days ago, former Indian Ambassador Madhu Bhaduri (an AAP founder) said she was distancing herself from the party due to its anti-women position. Former Air Deccan promoter GR Gopinath has been openly critical of the party's anarchist tendencies.
AAP does not have time to build its reputation – but is hoping that giving the electorate very little time to make up its mind will be beneficial. This is why it wants to expand its reach outside Delhi and Haryana to all states in the hope that elsewhere its clean reputation will hold better than its Delhi performance.
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