By Vishwas Waghmode
One of the key strategies adopted by the Aam Aadmi Party ahead of the Lok Sabha elections is clear: to tap existing organisations, known faces, the piggybacking on their support base a critical factor for the fledgling political party. While rapidly urbanising Maharashtra is one of the states where AAP is expected to do well given its larger presence here than elsewhere in the country, AAP strategists could well find that strategy thwarted, especially in Mumbai.
And that's because the AAP's core constituency -- young, middle class voters with a civic consciousness -- is not only already committed to other organisations that have fielded candidates in elections in the past, but these organisations will also now contest against AAP candidates in Mumbai. In a curious situation, while these organisations, some of them no more than loose groupings, share AAP's angst with the existing political "system" and the promise to bring in a transparent and incorruptible regime, they could end up splitting AAP's vote share in Mumbai.
Representational image. Reuters
Citizens' groups that have been actively working on civic issues for almost a decade in Mumbai, have grown increasingly active on the political front in the past two-three years. These include residents' associations and 'Advanced Locality Management groups (a coinage by the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation) which participate in managing the extremely local civic issues as well as the larger forums they formed, such as Mumbai227, Mumbai Nagrik Manch and Mumbai Nagriksatta.
These groups fielded independent candidates during the elections to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation held in February - March 2012. Then there is the LokSatta Party, a political party founded in 2006 by Dr Jayprakash Narayan, a member of the legislative assembly in Andhra Pradesh, which has been active in Mumbai since its inception and also fielded candidates for the 2012 BMC polls as well as during previous Assembly elections.
In 2012, these forums had fielded a total of 79 "citizens' candidates" across the 227 municipal wards in the city. Of the 79 candidates, the Mumbai 227 group fielded 53, LokSatta Party 14, Mumbai Nagrik Manch 2, and Mumbai Nagriksatta 5.
Though only one "citizens' candidate" posted a victory in the 2012 poll, the precedent had been set actually in the 2007 poll to the civic body, when residents of the plush Juhu suburb, home of most Bollywood stars, fielded a "consensus candidate" forcing some of the established parties to withdraw their candidates. In 2012 too, only one citizen's candidate emerged victorious, but the candidates did eat into the vote share of the mainstream political parties in a few wards, causing upsets in two wards and reducing the winning margin in a handful of other wards.
AAP in Maharashtra appears keen that these groups merge with AAP, a proposition that has until now been roundly rejected. "AAP wants us to merge into their party, which is not possible at all. It is also not interested in an alliance with us. The dialogue was on with them for the Lok Sabha elections but it halted following their demand of a merger," said Surendra Srivastava, national general secretary of LokSatta Party.
Srivastava said that its plan for Lok Sabha elections is being finalized and will be rolled out completely by 15 February. "India needs many more clean political parties and one can't depend on one political party," remarked Srivastava adding that although they agree with the AAP on the issue of clean politics, in terms of economic policies and programmes, the two are on different paths altogether.
"Recently, AAP opposed the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in retail but we are for FDI in retail as we want to create more job opportunities," pointed out Srivastava. At present, Lok Satta Party is planning to field candidates in three seats in Mumbai, one in Aurangabad and a couple of seats in Vidarbha.
Nitin Gadekar, a core committee member of the Mumbai 227 group, also said they have decided against merging the group with AAP. "We have finalized nothing for the Lok Sabha elections as yet. But we are looking out to put up our candidates. We have some candidates having prominence," said Gadekar. He added, "We are not against AAP but AAP in Maharashtra has nothing to show. In Delhi, Kejriwal was doing some kind of work."
The presence of other players also wooing AAP's core constituency of middle class voters could play spoiler for AAP's chances in Mumbai. The data from 2012 is indicative: Despite a pre-poll alliance with NCP, the Congress could win only 52 seats in the civic body out of 227. It had contested the civic elections alone (without a pre-poll tie-up) and had won 70 seats in 2007. One of the major factors that worked against the Congress in 2012 was the vote share gained by the citizens' candidates and rebel candidates.
Political analyst Dr Surendra Jondhale said it is quite apparent that AAP is seeking that these groups merge with it to create a larger independent political party.
"But AAP will not get the kind of success it got in Delhi. The kind of confidence AAP got from the Delhi election seems to be gradually getting diluted over the past few days. The political arithmetic in Maharashtra and in Mumbai city are altogether different. I don't see any strong possibility of AAP getting political success in city or state," said Jondhale.
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